Nifty Futures further extended the negative sentiment on Wednesday trading session tested an intraday low of 11437 followed by a sharp recovery. Yet another day momentum sellers controlled the day. Immediate quick flip support zones come around 11455 levels. Totally an emotional trading day witnessed among buyers and sellers.

Nifty Futures 5min quick flip charts

For any further momentum weakness, Nifty Futures needs to survive below 11455 levels to see the next lower reference levels 11354(3 week low). Thus far call writers are dominating this series at 11600, 11700 and 11800 strikes.

Nifty Daily Charts

As most of the Asian markets are closed negative on Wednesday’s trading session, Trading is not going to be easy on Thursday trading session as volatility could further broaden up resulting in increased intraday wild swings and currently, 10-day ATR improved to the level of 95.

Indicator Sentiment continues to be Negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. India VIX maintains sub 14 handle and currently at 13.65

Nifty Futures – 10 Day ATR Charts

Overall a range bound day is expected with wild swings if 11455 is protected on the downside. Nifty could enter into extreme negative momentum if possibly sustains below 11455 which could eventually lead to the next reference level 11354 (3 week low).

The post Nifty Futures – Negative Sentiment Further Extends – September Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

It is a volatile Thursday where Nifty futures traded in a sideways mode with increased volatility and wild swings and price manage to close around support zone 11545. Trading sentiment remain marginally elevated on the higher side with quick-flip strategy changed to positive mode around 2.20p.m.

However, Nifty Futures indicator sentiment remains negative. Means any price acceptance below 11545 levels will possibly bring sell signal in quick-flip with expectation on the downwards towards 2 days low – 11434 levels and possibly further lower. Maybe a kind of quick long liquidation is what expected if price maintains below 11545 levels in a very short term.

Nifty Futures – 5min Charts

Call writers are highly stable at 11800, 10700 and 10600PE. 10600 remains as the immediate resistance for the current series. Asian Markets & European continues to maintain negative sentiment and local currency USDINR testing 72 levels(ATH) will bring some negative pressure on the stock indices

Nifty Daily Sentiment

The post Nifty Futures – Trading Remains Range Bound – September Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures intraday volatility improved much better with trendy modes coming with wild swings thereby, keeping traders in busy mode throughout the day. Daily ATR levels improvised to 116.66 levels. Tuesday’s price action showed a downward spike with extreme sentiment followed by Wednesday’s price action with a counter-trend rally in the second half of trading.

India VIX lost 7% of its weight and down to 14.25 levels which is a good sign that possible counter-trend rally in progress. Quick Flip turned to buy mode at 11429.6 levels with immediate supports coming around 11387 levels. Price sustaining on Friday above 11420 levels could bring more momentum trading activity.

Nifty Futures 5min Charts – Quick Flip

From the Open Interest Perspective – 11400PE Put writers are defending with highest open interest and 11800CE call writers are defending on the higher side. If price maintains above 11400 in the spot brings the possibility of testing All-time high levels near the September expiry week.

Four Hourly sentiments turned positive in the second half of Wednesday’s trading session. However daily sentiment continues to be negative for the 2nd trading day. More likely a follow-through rally is required to turn the daily sentiment positive and to sustain above 11400 in the Nifty spot for further continuation of counter trend rally.

Trading Sentiment – 4 Hourly

The post Nifty Futures – September Futures – Intraday Volatility Continues appeared first on Marketcalls.

Amibroker Charts with Moneycontrol News Feed

Getting the newsfeed directly into my favorite charting software is always been interesting to me. If you are a news-hungry trader/investor possibly you may be also thinking in the same front as it increases productivity while trading hours rather than opening a separate portal and scrolling through the newsfeed one by one. It also helps you to have a quick overview of the market before the market starts and the quick market summary post market hours as well.

Here is the simple code snippet which brings varieties of Moneycontrol news feed into Amibroker Charting Portal with an appropriate timestamp which help you to get a quick glance about the latest happenings about the Financial Markets.

Coded requires Amibroker 6.17 as some of the new AFL functions like InternetClose( handle ) , InternetOpenURL( “url” ) , InternetReadString( handle ) – which is essecial to read from internet resource is available from v6.17 or higher version.

Amibroker Parameter control is provided to select from the List of Supported Newsfeed type from Moneycontrol
1)Latest News
2)Brokerage Recos
3)Buzzing Stocks
4)Economy
5)Market Reports
6)GlobalMarkets
7)IPO News
8)Market Outlook
9)Technicals
10)Commodity News
11)Results News
12)Currency News
13)Current Affairs

Moneycontrol News Snippet – Amibroker AFL Code

Let me know in the comments section, how did the code work for you.

The post How to Get Moneycontrol News Snippets into Amiboker? appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty futures bounced higher with short-term momentum players in control on Friday evening. Short term momentum play is witnessed at Friday low and 2 day high where momentum traders piled up at key reference levels 11464 and 11503. Immediate support zone comes around 11503 levels.

Nifty Futures ended -0.8% for the week with hammer pattern formation on the weekly timeframe. Daily sentiment turned positive on friday closing with neutral global market bias. Price sustaining above 11503 levels could possibly bring 11638 in the very short term.

Nifty Market Profile Charts

Quick-flip strategy continues to be in the positive mode with immediate supports around 11531. Momentum could decrease if price trades below 11531 but could still maintain buy mode. Strategy could possibly turned to sell mode only if price started trading below 11490 levels.

From the Options Perspective, 11400PE writers and 11500PE writers are in charge with expiry supports upgraded to 11400 levels. on the higher side 11800CE writers are still at control on the higher side. Nifty PCR is at 1.18 moderately bullish. If Nifty holds above 11500 then possibly we could be trading in 11500 – 11800 range for the next week.

Nifty Futures – 5min charts – Quick Flip

Nifty 4 hourly sentiment continues to be positive for the 2nd day. A slight reduction in Nifty Premium is seen. Current premium stands at 32. Volatility Index IndiaVIX declined from 15.45 to 13.84 levels this week.

Nifty 4 Hourly Sentiment

Key Economic Factors

1)US President Donald Trump has instructed aides on Thursday to proceed with tariffs on about $200 billion more in Chinese products despite Steven Mnuchin’s attempt to restart talks with Beijing to resolve the trade war.

2)Relief in USDINR move as it touched an all-time low of 72.91 on Wednesday and closed at Rs 71.8550 on Friday.

3)August WPI inflation at 4.53% Vs 5.09% (MoM); Core inflation at 5% Vs 4.80% (MoM)

4)Prime minister Narendra Modi will hold another economic review meeting with key policymakers on Saturday to discuss possible interventions by the government to address the macroeconomic challenges.

5)India’s trade deficit narrowed in August from a five-year high, stood at $17.39 billion, compared with $12.72 billion in the same month last year, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. The trade gap had widened to a five-year high of $18 billion in July.

6)Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services Ltd.’s downgrade to junk has put Rs 10,000 crore worth of investments by insurers and pension funds at risk.

[Image Source : Bloombergquint ]

Overall Global sentiment remains neutral. From Nifty Futures short term perspective 11490-11503 levels should act like a short terms support zone for further uptrend. Anything below the band nifty could get into short term downtrend.

The post Nifty Futures : Momentum Traders are Back in the Game appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures on Monday opened tumbled below the support zone 11490-11510 levels and erased all the Friday gains by EOD. Friday Short-term Momentum Buyers were followed by Monday Short-term Momentum Sellers. India VIX is back above 14 handle with 11500CE, 11600CE & 11800CE writers in control so far. Downside pressure resume back posts Monday’s price action.

US Markets and US Index futures drop as US President Trump slaps a new tariff on China. Goldman cuts India stocks to market weight from overweight as risk/reward less favorable at current levels. Says valuations stretched, most expensive in Asia, trading at record 58% premia to the region; At these levels, equities have historically posted neg returns over next 3-6months. Goldman Sachs downgrades Indian equities for the first time in more than four years.

Nifty Futures Market Profile

Nifty Futures formed a prominent POC on Monday with value built lower that turns the market profile sentiment negative. Price is hovering around the short-term support level 11396. Any acceptance below 11396 could bring a test towards previous swing low which is also the failed auction low at 11296 levels.

Nifty Futures – Quick Flip

Quick Flip turned negative on Nifty Futures at the open and managed to close negative. Immediate resistance comes around 11426. Any sustained move past 11426 could possibly trigger a buy signal. Else Nifty Futures is likely to continue sell mode the whole of Tuesday.

Nifty Futures 4 hourly sentiment turns negative. Price maintaining below 11423 levels will add more pressure towards the 11300 levels. For any positive directional clues, Nifty futures has to sustain above 11423 levels.

The post Nifty Futures – Topsy-Turvy Mode appeared first on Marketcalls.

Emotional selling prevailed during the Tuesday’s trading session intensifying in the last 1 hour of the trading session. Emotions are running high among the traders as intraday volatility in the market is at the extreme. Immediate resistance comes around 11342. Price opening higher and sustaining higher brings a potential trend reversal towards 11400 levels.

Nifty Futures Market Profile Charts

Nifty Futures Trading Sentiment

Nifty futures 4 hourly trading sentiment continues to be in the negative mode for the second day as well. Put writers are defending at 11200 levels and Call writers shifted their base to 11500 levels.

Nifty Futures Quick Flip

Quick flip continued in the short mode. However quick flip resistance dragged down to 11336. Anything above 11336 will turn the momentum selling bars to grey neutral bars. And possibly quick flip will trigger a buy if Nifty Futures stays above 11380 levels during the second half of the Wednesday’s trading session.

Emotional Days are often followed by quick trend reversal. Possibly one should monitor the spike base 11342 as a reference level for any positive sentiment getting built.

The post Nifty Futures – Extreme Negative Sentiment appeared first on Marketcalls.

A short webinar on How to automate your trading system using Amibroker and the statistical approach to reduce your trading cost via Automated Hedging. Webinar also focus on how to build your own automated hedging prototype to improve your transaction cost and benefit in the long run.

Event Date & Time : Sep 28, 2018 8:30 PM
Location : Online Webinar

Agenda
How to Automate your Trading System Using Amibroker.
How Automated Hedging Reduces Risk in your trading strategy and improves Alpha in the long run.
How to set up Automated Hedging and How to Design Prototypes.
Do’s and Dont’s while doing Automated Hedging.
How to Pratice Automated Hedging in a Simulated Virtual Trading Account before taking your strategy to live.

As usual, webinar will be recorded and will be posted in our youtube channel. Subscribe to our youtube channel if you haven’t yet.

The post Webinar : Automated Hedging using Amibroker appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the recorded video on Trading Strategies for Active Traders SEP 2018. Contains How to analyze, understand the trading system. How to allocate money to a trading system. How to reduce trading cost. More discretionary and systematic trading systems are shared with sufficient data points.

Topics Covered

1)High Probability Positional Trades using Traders Behavior.
2)Learn to Identify potential short covering rally/Long Liquidation setups.
3)Lean when to use supertrend and when not to use supertrend.
4)Lintra – Intraday and Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty.
5)Vlintra – Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty and High Beta Stocks.
5)Vlintra – Ultimate – Intraday Portfolio Trading System and How to Automate it.
6)Quick Flip Trading System – Use to identify momentum trades & identify the trend very earlier for investing.
7)How to understand the emotions behind gaps and how to trade gaps.
8)When to trade – before the event / post the event.
9)Managing the Risk with Heding Positions.
10)Potential Market Top/Bottom Setups using Market Profile.
11)Money Management Practices, When to Scale in/Scale Out.
12)How to setup professional charting desk/ required software tools/accessories.
13)How to Identify sideways markets using Expected Value.
14)How to Identify Trading Range for Nifty using PCR charts.
15)How to Identify where most of the traders keep their stoploss.
16)How to Identify the Market Confidence using Market Confidence Indicator.
17)How to Identify Trend Cycles using Turbo RSI.
18)Learn to do Top Down Analysis and How to build a successful day trading plan.

The post [Premium] Trading Strategies for Active Traders – Recorded Webinar appeared first on Marketcalls.

Recent days Bank Nifty Futures are under extreme pressure as it had so far lost 11.5% for this month alone breaking the 4 month low or roughly more than 3300 plus points of correction in Sep 2018 alone. Quick flip is in sell mode since 17th Sep 2018. The crash in Bank Nifty is mostly driven due to overvalued Private Banks, USDINR currency crisis and other local factors.

Quick Flip + Extreme Indications 5min Charts

So the current downtrend brought 5 extreme indication zones. Extreme indications are zones where one can do partial profit booking. Such extreme indication zones often has high probability very short-term trend reversal and at times it could event lead to major trend reversal. Current extreme indications readings -21.9 are way below standard levels indicating price holding above 25009 levels could possibly bring some positive bias as the candles turn to neutral bars.

Daily Sentiment Bank Nifty Futures

As of Mondays trading is concerned emotional selling prevailed since the open. Momentum sellers pushed the price down. Daily Sentiment is negative for the third consecutive trading day. Overall a recovery above 25009 could bring a possible short-term pullback a.k.a short covering towards 25300-25500 levels.

The post Extreme Indications in Bank Nifty Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures lost 5.4% for this month. Interestingly so far it is outperforming Bank Nifty Futures which lost 10% for Sep 2018 alone. Expiry is very near and current Nifty Futures rollover is at 23.73%. Nifty Futures premium is still at 30 points. Daily sentiment remains negative for the 5th day despite having a 100 pointer day in Nifty Futures. On the daily timeframe, Nifty Futures is still making lower lows for the third consecutive day. Momentum buyers controlled the day. Short term support comes around today’s spike base 11060. Volatility is at the extreme though India VIX down 4.27%

Nifty Futures Daily Charts

Nifty Futures – Market Profile Charts

Witnessed morning sellers and after sellers are not a serious seller and most of the trading activity started building above previous day low indicates most of the sellers who came into the market are more of emotional sellers which resulted in last 45min stop hunting activity in the form of a Spike. Tuesday’s trading is more of a roller coaster ride and price swings back and forth with extreme volatility. Relatively tough to manage a trade if someone is not getting the right context since the morning.

Short term resistance at previous double distribution zone at 11240 levels. Since the market had fallen steeper the odds are low that the recovery will be steeper. Rather sideways to downward continuation is the most likely situation with increased volatility. This expiry possibly upper limit is capped at 11240 levels. Any downtrend continuation requires price acceptance below the spike base 11060 levels.

Also remember price is trading back and forth around psychological reference levels 11000 for the third consecutive day. Hence trading won’t be that easier here.

The post Nifty Futures Short Term Overview – Market Profile appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures quick flip trading system is currently trading with immediate base supports coming around 11027-11043 levels. Price holding 11027 is very critical for the current uptrend to continue. On the Daily timeframe indicator sentiment still continues to be negative for the 6th consecutive trading session. Hence any price move down below 11027 could bring immediate weakness towards 11907 levels positionally.

Nifty Futures – Quick Flip 5min Charts

Momentum players are actively flipping back and forth with Wednesday being controlled by momentum sellers. With the increased volatility markets are expected to trade in sideways to downtrend mode.

Monday – Momentum Sellers
Tuesday – Momentum Buyers
Wednesday – Momentum Sellers again

Daily Indicator Sentiment

Index VIX closed around 17.09. And 10-Day ATR stands at 159 range which is a decent intraday volatility for short-term traders to take advantage of wild market moves and the nightmare for option writers as the short term trends, twist and turn in the markets way faster than the anticipated. However so far markets had rewarded the call option writers since the start of the series considerably.

Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the upcoming sessions. With this volatility, one need to stick to some sort of rule book rather than predicting the wild intraday moves very often. Overall system is expected to deliver a sell signal if price manages to accept below the 11027 levels.

The post Nifty Futures at Critical Support Zone at 11027 – 11043 band appeared first on Marketcalls.

Extreme Indications in Nifty Futures

Nifty futures on the daily timeframe shows extreme indications as it tested the 3 Standard deviation band on Thursday, September expiry day. Sideways to short-term pullbacks are expected if Nifty Futures is able to hold quick flip short-term support zone 10959 level.

Totally September series is controlled by momentum directional bears and call writers and never let the call option buyers take advantage of their positional longs. October series premium is around 52 points which are still huge. So avoid playing Out of the money call Options specifically positional longs in Nifty Futures until the VIX crashes. India VIX currently stands above 17 handles.

Quick Flip continues to be in short mode since 11.00p.m. where emotional and momentum shorter term sellers controlled the expiry day. which has the higher odds of rollback to previous levels as that 11000 psychological reference is still in play. Markets are likely to enter in a high volatile sideways phase. So shorter term trends could be very confusing and the market will not let the traders figure out where the market bottom is.

Instead of predicting where the market likely to bottom out. Keep playing where ever the shorter term trend goes. Maybe we are somewhere close to the short-term bottom or the bottom could be already made.

As I always insist that trading around the psychological round number figures are not going to be easy to hold positional traders. Holding the trades for very short-term works here. Let the volatility crash and let the market bottomed out. Until then keep playing the very short-term moves in the market.

Nifty Futures Quick Flip Charts

As for as the trading sentiment is concerned it remains down for the last 6 consecutive trading session. Price reversal is expected if Nifty is able to trade above 10974 in the November series. Possibly a move above 11020 in October series could trigger a buy mode in quick flip strategy.

The post Extreme Indications in Nifty Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

October month started with high volatile movement in Nifty Futures where it swings between 10857 – 11090 during Monday trading session. But don’t be surprised with such sort of wild volatility swings. On the higher timeframe (Daily Charts) Nifty is still in a sideways mode as last 7 days in a row Nifty Spot tested 11000 levels regardless of where nifty went, which makes the positional trading difficult to hold on to your conclusions. Welcome to the psychological reference game.

The upcoming RBI policy decision on 5th Oct 2018 could be the possible key for a volatility crash. Until then one should maintain a low profile on positional call longs in options if you are a naked option trader. It mostly gets hurts if traded positionally and VIX started crashing on the other side.

Nifty Futures quick flip strategy continues with positional long. However, the price ended closed at the extreme zone. Pink bars(Extreme indication panel) are often a good partial profit booking zones as often it brings very short term reversals at those pink bar zones. Current quick flip support zone comes around 10983 levels. Any price acceptance bellow 10983 could move quick flip to sell zone again.

Nifty Futures 5min Charts

Nifty 10-day ATR at 152 levels that explains the wild volatility swings. OI writers crowded for this series at 10800 levels and mildly crowded at 11000 levels as well.
Nifty Futures daily sentiment turned positive post the late price spike on Monday trading session

Nifty Futures – Daily Sentiment

Re-iterating what I said in the last article, “As I always insist that trading around the psychological round number figures are not going to be easy to hold positional traders. Holding the trades for very short-term works here. Let the volatility crash and let the market bottomed out. Until then keep playing the very short-term moves in the market.”

The post Nifty Futures – Volatility is the Keyword – October Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Successful Traders “Learn to Do Something That Almost No One Else Can Do”
Why successful financial speculators are so rare

By Elliott Wave International

Most market speculators dream about trading their way to wealth.

But, also, most discover very quickly that their list of trading “dos” and “don’ts” are just not sufficient.

The hard, cold truth is that most will fail. According to brokers’ statistics, up to 90% of all traders will end up losing money. It’s a steep hill to climb.

But, there is a way. As you keep reading, you’ll discover how to get important insights into what makes traders successful.

In the meantime, let’s start off with some words of warning from professional trader Peter Brandt, who contributed this to the April 1991 Elliott Wave Theorist (Brandt’s insights are timeless):

I believe that it takes a minimum of 3 to 5 years for a person to learn enough about speculative markets and the speculative process to become a successful trader. I also believe that every successful trader has his or her unique approach to trading. I have not known two successful traders that operate in the same exact fashion. Each has found a special niche that seems to fit his personality.

The major problem is that the vast majority of individuals (80-90%) either burn out their pocketbooks or their emotional will to continue trading before they figure out the rules of the game. This is a cold and harsh reality, but a reality it is.

Robert Prechter explained why successful traders are few and far between in the June 2004 Theorist:

This discussion about the natural tendency of people to apply physics to finance explains why successful traders are so rare and why they are so immensely rewarded for their skills.

There is no such thing as a “born trader” because people are born — or learn very early — to respect the laws of physics. This respect is so strong that they apply these laws even in inappropriate situations. Most people who follow the market closely act as if the market is a physical force aimed at their heads. Buying during rallies and selling during declines is akin to ducking when a rock is hurtling toward you. Successful traders learn to do something that almost no one else can do. They sell near the emotional extreme of a rally and buy near the emotional extreme of a decline.

The mental discipline that a successful trader shows in buying low and selling high is akin to that of a person who sees a rock thrown at his head and refuses to duck. He thinks, I’m betting that the rock will veer away at the last moment, of its own accord. In this endeavor, he must ignore the laws of physics to which his mind naturally defaults. In the physical world, this would be insane behavior; in finance, it makes him rich.

Unfortunately, sometimes the rock does not veer. It hits the trader in the head. All he has to rely upon is percentages. He knows from long study that most of the time, the rock coming at him will veer away, but he also must take the consequences when it doesn’t. The emotional fortitude required to stand in the way of a hurtling stone when you might get hurt is immense, and few people possess it. It is, of course, a great paradox that people who can’t perform this feat get hurt over and over in financial markets and endure a serious stoning, sometimes to death. Many great truths about life are paradoxical, and so is this one.

Prechter won the United States Trading Championship in 1984. He made approximately 200 short-term trades as he followed hourly market data over a four-month period.

After reflecting on his trading experiences, Prechter decided to write down the guidelines you really need to trade the financial markets successfully.

Get the free report, “What Every Trader Really Needs to be Successful.”

What You and Every Other Trader REALLY Need to Be Successful

Trading isn’t easy. You know as well as we do how confusing and frustrating it can be.

So frustrating, in fact, that it can lead you to veer off course – and give up trading entirely.

There is a better way. Often, all a trader like you needs are a few simple tips to right the ship and set it back on course.

You can get tips from a U.S. Trading Champion.

In 1984, in a monitored account, Robert Prechter won the U.S. Trading Championship with a then-record 444% return. He later earned the title of “The Guru of the Decade” from the network today called CNBC.

Bob knows a thing or two about trading – and you can learn from him. Free.

This free special report gives you Bob’s 5 tips every trader must know to win in the markets.

Read the report now, free – and put Bob’s tips to good use today.

The post Successful Traders “Learn to Do Something That Almost No One Else Can Do” appeared first on Marketcalls.

A lot of weird things happened during Wednesday trading session. Nifty Smallcap closed positive while Nifty Spot lost more than 150 pts. India VIX spiked above 18.12 levels.
Prevailing Italian crisis, USDINR Hitting all-time high, Weak Asian Markets & Brent crude near 85 USD per barrel. Nifty started underperforming Bank Nifty Futures largely due to Nifty Auto and Nifty IT sector as it is down 2.94 and 1.87 respectively. Two more trading days left for the RBI policy to kick start. Despite all these drama Nifty Futures ended as an Inside bar.

Very short-term sentiment went extreme (the green bars). Pointing to a very short-term trend reversal on Thursday trading at least at the open. Maybe the later part of the day might turn to lackluster trading day or a possible one more inside bar. Most of the shorter term traders are waiting for 200MA to hit. However on the longer timeframe, Nifty is still maintaining a sideways to downtrend

Indicator sentiment continues to be positive on the 2nd consecutive day despite a 150 point fall in Nifty Futures indicates a possibe sideways continuation for next two trading session. Open Interest data points look like the put writing is very much scattered around 10500 – 11000 levels indicates put writers are expecting volatility to iincrase further this week.

Overall still not a right zone for the naked option buyer or seller to take positional traders and neither the markets are bottomed out!

The post Nifty Futures – Short Term Overview – October Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Listen, IT is the hottest sector when USDINR is hitting the all-time high. pharmaceutical and information technology are the sectors which earn a big part of their revenues in dollars. Every dollar earned through exports means more money added to the bottom line. Year to Date Nifty IT Sector gained 36.4% and a whopping 700% returns since Feb 2009. But I’m here to tell that “you should always leave a party early when the sector is on steroids”.

IT sector is highly dominated by momentum investors who storm in and buy stocks with high valuations solely because prices have been going higher. Momentum investors chase such risky and high volatile counters and they are the last one to get caught at the market top. They compound during stock accumulation and amplify the risk when they are liquidating.

Nifty IT sector Historical Monthly Charts

Nifty IT Weekly Momentum

Building a bubble isn’t complicated, but it takes time, Positive feedback, and a bit of momentum. Currently, monthly momentum in IT sector is at the extreme above 94 levels. This is the third time since 2009 reaching such extreme zone. However Weekly momentum is falling for the last two consecutive weeks indicates a possible medium-term weakness.

PE valuations and other fundamental factors are also stretched in Nifty IT stocks.

Market Cap and Fundamentals of TOP IT Stocks

Nifty IT sector and Bollinger Band – Monthly Charts

Bollinger band measures momentum and helps to identify when is the best time to pull the trigger. Nifty IT sector is relatively overvalued as price trades around the upper Bollinger band on the monthly timeframe.

Nifty IT Market Profile Charts

Market profile study indicates clearly momentum buyers are in control and momentum buyers are chasing the price madly with a fair-traded price around 12544 levels.

Overall higher timeframe indicators are highly stretched and possibly the environment doesn’t fit new investors/existing one to chase the momentum at current levels. Don’t be the last beer in the fridge and don’t overstay a party. Momentum trading usually hurts when the markets are about to take a ‘U’ turn.

The post Nifty IT – Stretched Valuations – Investors Caution Zone appeared first on Marketcalls.

Island Gap reversal is one of my favorite trade setups. Which we talked about it numerous times in our blog with live examples. Following are some of the trade setups and tutorials.

Nifty Smallcap – Bullish Island Reversal Pattern to be Revisited?

Nifty FMCG – Bearish Island Reversal Pattern to be Revisited?

How to trade island gap reversal setups

In theory, island gap reversals are nothing but a gap closed by another gap. No volume occurs in this zone. This zone is a high probability short term zone. At times it gives trading opportunities and at times it even provides investing odds as well where the destination target is always the filling of the gap.

How long it takes to cover the target zone?

From the Island reversal gap, steeper the fall then recovery odds are likely to be slow. In such a case anywhere between 1-2 month could be an ideal scenario, especially in a highly volatile environment. If deeper the size of the gap the recovery can extend up to 5-6 months.

Current Island reversal gap is between 27290 – 26706, however, fall from the island reversal zone is steeper. Hence an ideal revisit towards the zone is likely to be expected in 1-2 month duration with a higher probability. Current fair price of Bank Nifty Futures for the year 2018 (POC – point of control ) is around 26427 and Bank Nifty currently trades below the fair price point.

If you are new to Point of control then remember this. Point of control often acts like a magnet where more price activity can happen and trading activity mostly centers around Point of Control zone. #MarketProfile

The post Island Gap Reversal Zone in Bank Nifty Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

USDINR has an interesting monthly pattern. For 10 months in a row, it is one timeframing without breaking previous month lows that shows the confidence of larger timeframe players. It is a straight upward one-sided rally. All-time high comes around 74.528. Current swing move from 63.10 to 74.528 which is roughly 18% of swing move. The entire move comes from the year 2018 along.

USDINR Monthly charts

USDINR – 4 hourly charts

Weekly still shows strength. However, on the daily timeframe it forms a 4 days of consolidation at the major swing high with an outside bar on the daily candlesticks, which is a sign of weakness. On the 4-hourly charts, USDINR switches to momentum mode to a neutral mode which another sign of weakness. Any strength if has to seen USDINR has to show above 74.50. Until then it has high probable trend reversal indications.

The post USDINR – Signs of Short Term Top appeared first on Marketcalls.

A lazy weekend morning and everything around you is slow and still!

Are you lost in your world of thoughts about the market?  Your open positions, economic concerns are flashing through your mind very frequently. You might be thinking whether the market bottomed out, where  the next support/resistance is, which stock one can pick up from these oversold markets, which stock can bring quick returns, where  the best trading opportunity is, where the market could go next and  arrays of thoughts might be running through your mind right now.

If yes, then possibly, you are a short-term trader/investor!

Whether we are in a bull/bear market I don’t know. But something in the landscape of market dynamics had changed for sure. It is not the same old slow uptrending bull market. We are no more facing muted volatility. 10-day ATR in Nifty expanded to 200+ levels and in Bank Nifty 580+ points which eventually means there is no slow tide of waves in the markets. If you are new this realm or never seen one before one has to learn to surf through the tsunami of fast and quick intraday moves.

Nifty Daily ATR

In an extended low volatile period “Buyers keeps buying” and they come to a belief that the equities they own are safer than they actually are. What we felt in the last two months is a “financial earthquake”. High volatile zone often comes with Volatility clustering. i.e “large changes tend to be followed by large changes… and small changes tend to be followed by small changes”. In simple terms when a market suffers a volatile shock, more volatility should be expected. This phenomenon has been referred to as the persistence of volatility shocks, which gives rise to the concept of volatility clustering.

The question here is are you prepared for such volatile shocks in terms of risk? One has to think in those terms because making money or losing more are even faster now. If you never experienced such high volatile conditions in the past then possibly it is the right time to think about reducing your positions in the market and play lightweight. Or you might be a risky trader if you are driven mostly by adrenaline-pumping impulsive trade decisions rather than an objective rational play!

Respect risk if you want to survive this sort of volatility especially those who never cared about market survival during those low volatile zones. It is not an easy task to control risk because most of us play here only to maximize our gains.  Every market thought us a different lesson. It is not going to end anytime soon. Keep learning!

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