Wednesday’s profile structure is interesting as it turns out to be a classical trend day. On a Down Trend day market one timeframe lower without breaking the previous bar high. i.e making lower high on a 30min charts. Once the one timeframing broke on Wednesday trading in Nifty Futures.

One timeframing is a sign of market confidence. It is better not to trade against one timeframing rather than getting caught trading against one. Many shorter-term traders trade against one-timeframing.

Though price opens gap up, momentum emotional sellers pushed the price through the previous day range and formed an outside bar or a bearish engulfing bar on the daily bar/candlestick charts. It is emotional sellers because a total of 7 anomalies witnessed on Wednesday’s trading session which is a sign of shorter-term emotional sellers. No Institutional selling in Index Futures witnessed.

Nifty Market Profile Charts

If the Wednesday’s sellers are so serious the market confidence will be continued on Fridays session as well. High confidence selling can come in the form of gap down or breaking three day or four day low and starts building lower activity. Lack of sellers confidence mostly attempts to clear most of the anomalies. Price opening inside the range and staying inside the range or price breaking Wednesdays low and pulled back into previous days range with activity starts building above previous day high are sign of low confidence selling(no so serious sellers).

If the anomalies are more than 3 we call the profile structure as poor structure or weaker structure. Generally it has a high probability of revisit of all those anomalies with makes the poor structure. Price just goes and repair that poor structure often. However if the high selling confidence persist one should go and trade in the direction of confidence rather than attempting/expecting poor structure to revisit. Poor structure is a short-term reference not necessarily it has to clear on very next day itself.

P shape profile balance (short term reference) on 12th Oct at 10430 likely to act as a short term support. Acceptance down below (Fridays POC building below) P shape balance indicates high confidence selling. In such a case trading against the trend (mean reversion trading) rarely helps a short-term trader.

Bank Nifty Profile Charts

Bank Nifty too had a classical trend day on Wednesday trading session with 4 anomalies created indicating a poor structure. Too much of weak stops and poor structure are down below the Wednesdays close. High confidence selling on Friday brings more weakness to Bank Nifty. If any sign of low confidence one can try intraday mean reversion trades towards the clearence of anomalies.

However, keep in mind that momentum sellers controlled the Wednesday trading session. Hence a counter-trend reversal close is much required to think about positional longs. Profile Structure wise Bank Nifty looks more weaker than Nifty Futures.

The post Nifty and Bank Nifty – Market Profile Structure Overview – October Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty spot bounced of from 3rd Standard deviation extreme band signs of caution for positional shorts out there as it historically indicates a kind of oversold markets with a greater odds of a bounce back in the short to medium term. Lack of sellers confidence is an opportunity to fade those sellers in a very short term. Current extreme indications come around -7.4.

Nifty Weekly Timeframe
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There might be too many late laggard shorts in the system. Any flush out of such shorts are the real sign of tide is turning on the upper side. However, playing on the upper side is still tougher if you are naked option player as even if you are right with your directional view you might lose on the volatility. In that case it is not recommended to play with Out of the money options. It is better to stick to At the money strike with very short-term longs rather than getting caught with the volatility crush! (if any)

Bank Nifty also showing similar signs of bounce back from extreme indication zone.

Bank Nifty Weekly Timeframe

The post Extreme Indications in Nifty Weekly Timeframe – Sign of Caution for Late Shorts appeared first on Marketcalls.

Market Generated Information is the key to better market understanding which tracks what out competition is doing and how dumb they really are. This tutorial explains how we can understand the market behavior with emotional players and how do they react and how we can spot them using market profile. As always market profile is not a trading strategy but a completely a different way of looking into markets, in fact, I call it as radical thinking.

The post [Premium] : Market Profile Tutorial on How to Deal with Exponential Emotional Information appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Quick flip trading system

Nifty Futures quick flip is currently in sell mode with immediate resistance comes around 10103 and 10132 levels. The strategy remains in positional sell as long as both the resistance level holds. Breaking above 10132 quick flip could switch to positional buy mode targetting 10400 levels. Trading sentiment holds negative on the daily and weekly timeframe. Any positive flip requires nifty to sustain above 10103 levels.

Nifty Daily Sentiment

The post Nifty Futures Quick Short Term Trend Overview appeared first on Marketcalls.

Mass sectoral positive change is witnessed on Monday’s trading session across daily and weekly timeframe. The positive sentimental change reflected in most of the sectoral indices on daily and weekly timeframe except FMCG sector on daily timeframe and Nifty IT, Nifty MNC, Nifty Metal on the weekly timeframe.

Sectoral Indices – Daily

Interesting facts are only 2 indices (Nifty Pharma , Nifty IT index) holds above 200 MA on daily timeframe. Rest other indices still trading below 200MA. Farthest sector away from 200MA being Nifty Realty – away 26.54% from 200MA. Next to that Nifty Smallcap (-23.64%), Nifty Media(-21.35%) and Nifty Auto (-19.8%) are the deep underperformers.

Sectoral Indices – Weekly

What do you think? Is this a real sentimental shift in the market or just a investor trap?

The post Mass Sentimental Change in Sectoral Indices appeared first on Marketcalls.

Is there a way where one can identify market regime shift from low volatility zone to high volatility zone and vice versa? How I can identify stocks with increasing volatility? Is there a way one can identify the regime shift in volatility? These are the bugging question from many short-term traders.

To kickstart ATR is a measure of volatility and not a directional indicator. when the market participants are active & interested eventually it will result in large trading range. However, if the participants are uninterested which will result in smaller trading range. And the volatility behavior can be seen in cycles where the market moves from high volatile zones to low volatile zones and vice versa.

PercentRank Based Smooth ATR – Nifty Daily Charts

But ATR values alone we cannot use it to predict the change in regime shift from low to high or high to low volatility shift. In order to predict the regime-shift, we need to smooth the ATR. Here smoothing of the ATR data points are done using linear regression to reduce lag in end result and equally responsive as the actual ATR values.

Now Percentrank is applied over smooth ATR to predict the change in regime shift. Percent rank value of 100 indicates that the smooth ATR is the highest for the given lookback range, while a value of 0 indicates that the smooth ATR value is the lowest for the given lookback range(Default lookback range = 20 bars).

From Zero to Increasing Percent Rank indicates regime change from low volatility zones to high volatility zone (Blue Color)

whereas,

From 100 to Decreasing Percent Rank indicates regime shift from high volatility to low volatility zone. (Red Color)

Here are the Amibroker AFL codes for Percent Rank based smooth ATR and colored candles according to the high volatility or low volatility zones. High volatility zones are colored blue and low volatile zones are colored red. Exploration feature is added to find increasing/decreasing Percent rank with values.

Note: Exploration can be used only on 1 recent bar or 1 recent day if on a daily timeframe to get accurate values.

PercentRank Based Smooth ATR Colorcoded Candles – Amibroker AFL Code

PercentRank Based Smooth ATR – Amibroker AFL Code

The post PercentRank Based Smooth ATR to Predict Change in Volatility – Amibroker AFL Code appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures Quick Flip

Nifty Futures quick flip is in buy mode since 31st Oct and more amount of time is spent in that signal. Current immediate resistance comes around 10615 levels with a possible short-term move towards 10480 levels. For any positive momentum to occur price need to scale back above 10615 levels. Daily Trading sentiment holds positive.

Sector Sentiment

Last time we seen a mass sentimental change in sectoral indices. Same sentiment holds for a week indicating a possible medium-term bullishness but in a short-term markets may remain volatile. Except NiftyIT sector rest all the sector holding positive.

The post Nifty Futures November Futures and Sector Sentiment Quick Overview appeared first on Marketcalls.

TradeZilla 2.0 is a complete 1month mentorship program for active traders (intraday/positional) to Explore Trading Edge and Be an Independent Trader. Mentorship program is designed in an objective way to take advantage of traders behavior to trade any market conditions, to trade any trading instrument across the world. Unconventional tools like market profile, order-flow analysis are used to explain the market/traders behavior. Signature trades using market profile are deeply explained to the users with intensive live market training.

The following things are covered under TradeZilla 2.0

Market Profile – Part 1

1)How to gain trading edge using Market Profile
2)How to read Market Profile
3)Introduction to auction Theory
4)Basics of Market Profile (Basic Terminologies, Profile Distribution Patterns, Open Types)
5)Learn the importance of Point of control, Poor Low, Poor High, Failed Auction and other short-term nuances
6)Understand the traders behavior using market profile
7)Learn the behavior of dumb money via market profile
8)Learn to understand the market confidence & avoid unwanted noise/sideways markets
9)Trading Price Vs Trading Value Area
10)Learn Excess and Balance Concepts
11)When to trade with the trend and when to trade against the trend using Market Profile
12)When to avoid trades using market profile
13)Learn Market Profile Inventory Conditions

Market Profile – Part 2

1)Market Profile Chart Settings for Various Instruments (Indices, Stocks, Commodities, Currencies)
2)How to estimate/forecast the stop loss of other traders using market profile
3)How to Prepare for a Trading Day (Top Down Analysis & Pre Market Analysis)
4)Signature Trades in Market Profile(G2/G3 Patterns), Poor Low/Poor High Patterns
5)How to draw short term and intraday references and understand the significance of the reference lines
6)How and when to trade against crowd sentiment
7)Best Trading Pratices and Market Profile Trading Pricinciples
8)Lean how to invest for Short Term/Long Term using Market Profile
9)Gap Strategy and Spike Strategies in Market Profile

Orderflow
1)How to gain trading edge using Orderflow
2)How to read Orderflow charts
3)Basics of Orderflow (Delta, Cumulative Delta, BidxAsk Imbalance, Unfinished Auction, Absorption)
3)Signature Trades in Orderflow for a successful trades (RDelta Intraday Strategy, Scalping Intraday Patterns)

The post [Premium Recorded Webinars] TradeZilla 2.0 – Discover your Trading Edge – Market Profile Mentorship Program appeared first on Marketcalls.

Fact: The direction of interest rates does not determine the stock market’s trend

By Elliott Wave International

Investing is hard. You, like many others, probably watch financial TV networks, read analysis, listen to talk shows and talk to fellow investors, trying to understand what’s next.

One popular stock market “indicator” is interest rates. Analysts parse every word from the Fed, hoping they hear a clue about interest rates. They assume that falling rates means higher stock prices, while rising rates means lower stocks.

But does the conventional wisdom about interest rates and stocks square with reality? Let’s do a brief historical review.

From October 1974 to December 1976, the stock market rose as the Fed funds rates trended lower. This occurred again from July 1984 to August 1987. Conversely, stock prices faltered as interest rates climbed from January 1973 to October 1974 and again from December 1976 to February 1978. So far, so good: rates up/stocks down, or vice versa.

But stock prices have also fallen as interest rates declined — more than once. Take a look at the chart below. The commentary is from the February 2010 Elliott Wave Theorist:

[The chart] shows a history of the four biggest stock market declines of the past hundred years. They display routs of 54% to 89%. In all these cases, interest rates fell, and in two of those cases they went all the way to zero!

The next chart shows you when stocks and interest rates trended higher together. You can see the Dow rise from March 2003 to October 2007 as rates climb from around 1% to over 5%.

Here’s the point: There is no consistent relationship between interest rates and the stock market.

That doesn’t mean volatility will be absent around the time of a Fed meeting. But, if that ever turns out to be the case, keep this in mind from a classic Elliott Wave Theorist:

The Fed’s decision will not cause any such volatility; it just may (or may not) coincide with it. Whether volatility continues around the Fed’s meeting is up to the markets, not the Fed… [The] Fed’s meeting, therefore, is not crucial, pivotal, historic or momentous. It is mostly irrelevant.

Investing is hard, but believing in the myth that interest rates have a big influence on the stock market makes it even harder. And, we have several more popular myths to dispel for you in our free report, Market Myths Exposed.

Did you know that the vast majority of portfolios are built on false assumptions? These false assumptions — or Market Myths — have been passed down across generations. They are so baked into investor psyche that no one ever thinks to challenge them… but we do. Do earnings really drive stock prices? Can the FDIC actually protect you? Is portfolio diversification a smart move? Download Market Myths Exposed now and find out whether your portfolio is built on flawed foundations. We guarantee you’ll be shocked to find the truth.

Sign up now and get FREE access to The Market Myths Exposed eBook.

The post Will the Fed’s Rate Hikes Choke the Stock Market Rally? appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures quick flip is continuing its uptrend since 31st Oct 2018 onwards so far current buy signal completed 6 trading session or 1785 minutes. Comparing with the historical holding period (2011-2018) for Nifty futures quick flip had 74 occurrences out of 1142 trade where its holding period exceeded beyond 1750 minutes.

Quick Flip Holding Period Distribution

Going by the data points there is only 6.4% of odds that this long setup is likely to continue and higher possibilities i.e 93.4% odds that mean reversion is likely towards 10500 levels or in worst case lower towards 10370. Also 6 extreme indications witnessed in the current uptrend which is also larger by any means. Muhurat trading session ended with extreme indications.

The green bars in quick flip signifies momentum bars. If the shorter term momentum uptrend to change then a sustaiable price activity below 10582 confirms the high probability mean reversion odds.

The post Nifty Futures Quick Flip Overview – Nov Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the recorded video on how to create custom indicators, scanners/exploration, trading strategies, Signal Generation, Creating Trading Signal Dashboard , Performing Technical analysis and even test/validate your trading models and how to perform end to end automation explained live coding examples, real life trading systems and pratical automated trading systems. If you want to learn Amibroker and AFL Programming Language one step better then this course is for you. Currently, access is limited to Amibroker AFL Programming online webinar participants.

The post [Premium] Amibroker AFL Programming OCT 2018 Recorded Webinars appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures – Quick Flip Analysis

Quick Flip continues to be in positive mode since 31st Oct with immediate supports coming around 10610. Momentum continues in the market as long as Nifty holds above 10610. If one has to trade the weakness, a sustainable move below 10610 is required that could trigger the downside key reference levels 10500 and 10345 levels in Nifty Futures in short term.

As per the last discussion looking into the historical distribution of holding period, Quick-Flip current positive mode is 2165 minutes old. Comparing with the historical holding period (2011-2018) for Nifty futures quick flip had 42 occurrences out of 1142 trade where its holding period exceeded beyond 2165 minutes.

Going by the data points there is only 3.6% of odds that this long setup is likely to continue and higher possibilities i.e 96.4% odds that mean reversion is likely.

Daily Sector Analysis

After a mass sentimental change on 29th Oct there is a significant shift in the weakness in most of the sectoral counters. Out of the 28 indices that we are tracking 11 turned negative in the short term. That spells trouble in the short term.

Weekly Sector Sentiment

Weekly Sentiment is absolutely strong indicating continuation of the medium-term uptrend.

The post Nifty Short Term Trend and Sector Sentiment Overview appeared first on Marketcalls.

Tradingview is one of the top 500 websites in the world powered with Interactive charts for various financial markets(stocks, futures, indices, cryptos, commodities). Undoubtedly, it is a first innovative charting product with access to historical and live intraday/EOD charts where one can build their own custom indicators/strategies on top of it. TradingView community, as of today, consists of over 3 million monthly active users. To contribute something meaningful to the community we will be doing a live webinar on how to use tradingview pinescript language and how to build your own indicators, strategies or Trading Alerts.

What is Pinescript?

Tradingview is equipped with a powerful formula language (pinescript) allowing traders/coders to write trading system rules, define your own indicators, generate rule-based alerts, buy and sell arrow indications and more. You can follow my works, predictions on tradingview platform here

Webinar Time : 16th Nov 2018 ( 8p.m – 10p.m IST)

Webinar Agenda

Introduction to Tradingview Platform and Pinescript

Learn Basics of Pinescript Programming

Pinescript Syntax and Semantics

Learn How to Write your First Indicator using Pinescript

Working with Inputs, Colors, Plot Arrows, Alerts

Learn How to Write your First Trading Strategy in Pinescript

Learn How to Backtest your Trading Strategy in Pinescript

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

The post Free Live Webinar : Learn the Basics of Tradingview – Pinescript Language appeared first on Marketcalls.

Monitoring Market confidence is a day to day routine practice for intraday and short-term players to determine how confident the participation are. This video tutorial explains how to spot market confidence using market profile, how strong/weak participation can be spotted using visual rules in an objective manner. And how to apply these visual rules for any asset class (stocks, futures, indices, bonds, cryptos ) for short-term trading. It also explains how to combine Market Confidence with Trading Inventory, Short term/Intraday nuances which further adds odd based thinking when comes to trading.

If you are missing market confidence on a day to day routine trading life then truly your market understanding is undoubtedly incomplete.

Agenda

1)Types of Market Confidence.
2)Where to measure Market Confidence (Short-term and Intraday References).
3)How to focus on Intraday target when there is low buyers confidence or sellers confidence prevails.
4)Key rules to follow while recording Market Confidence.
5)How Frequent to Measure Confidence and Looking for trading opportunities.
6)How to Identify Strong Momentum Trading Vs Weaker Momentum Trading.
7)How to measure Acceptance/Rejection over key reference levels where confidence is measured.
8)Special Case Monitoring if TPO is greater than or equal to 6 at Key reference level.
9)Market Opening Confidence Cheatsheet.
10)Mid Day Market Opening Confidence Cheatsheet.

Currently, the video access is available for TradeZilla 2.0 Mentorship program on Market Profile and Orderflow attendees

The post [Premium] Market Profile Tutorial on How and Where to Measure Market Confidence appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is a live daily market commentary from our ongoing live event TradeZilla 2.0 – Market Profile and Orderflow live mentorship program. It is an in-depth objective program for active traders with live training with the deep thought process when comes to market understanding.

The post TradeZilla 2.0 – Discover your Trading Edge – 12th Nov 2018 Live Daily Commentary appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty is still trading in a 10500 – 10640 consolidation range where quick flip strategy turned to sell mode around 10587 and it continues to be in the sell mode with immediate resistance coming around 10510 – 10523 band in a very short term. Momentum selling stays as long as price stays below 10510-10523 band stays. The Next destination target is to look 10350 levels.

Nifty Daily Sentiment
Nifty Daily sentiment turned negative that indicates a possible short-term positional weakness on the downside. Put writers are aggressive around 10000 and 10200 reference levels where immediate positional supports can be expected for this series and on the higher side 10700 is where call writers are seen. This expiry could possibly move in either 10000 – 10700 or 10200 – 10700 range.

The post Nifty Futures Quick Flip November Overview : Short Term Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

MCX Natural Gas November futures soared to 19% after the US weather forecasts called for an increasingly cold winter in December which raises concerns that fuel supplies may not be adequate to meet seasonal demand. Natural gas is soaring, during the month of Nov 2018 alone Natural Gas futures up by a whopping 43%.

The rise in Natural Gas price reflects worries that winter heating demand may draw heavily on stocks of US gas in storage that now sit at 3.2tn cubic feet, the lowest in more than a decade for this time of year.

Natural Gas 5min Charts

The volatility in Natural gas soared to an extreme. And the volatility is expected to be higher for some more days. Nautral Gas hourly sentiment is at the extreme so price sustainability at these higher levels raises lot of concerns.

Natural Gas Hourly Extreme Sentiment

The post MCX Nautral Gas Futures Price Rises 19% on Forecast of Cold December appeared first on Marketcalls.

WTIC Crude in the International market had lost more than 24% in the last two months due to too many negative factors. WTIC crude oil dips below $55 to its lowest level in a year, extending a record losing streak. Sentiment went really extreme negative when US President Donald Trump tweeted “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!”

Sentiment turning Positive on 4 Hourly Timeframe

After a slow and steady downtrend trading sentiment in crude oil really went extremely negative and probably a possible sideways to uptrend continuation on the 4 hourly timeframe. Quick Flip is currently in the neutral mode on the hourly timeframe with supports coming around 55.1-55.6 band with possible expectation towards 58 and 58.5 in short term.

Quick Flip – Hourly Timeframe

The post Crude OIL easing from Extreme Sentiment : Short Term Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the interesting market profile tutorial on how stealth auctions happen in the market and how intraday traders get trapped by completely trading against the trend for the day. In this example, we look into how stealth short covering happens.

The post [Premium] Market Profile Tutorial on Stealth Auctions appeared first on Marketcalls.

You’re hearing a lot of explanations as to what’s going on with the stock market. Here’s an explanation you won’t find in the mainstream – and it’s one of the most useful of all.

The stock market’s volatility from late July through early October was extraordinarily low. For 50 straight days the S&P 500 had not closed more than 0.8% in either direction, the longest such streak since 1968.

Yet, on October 3, all that changed. The markets dropped hard… and the VIX suddenly spiked even harder.

The sudden explosion in volatility blindsided almost everyone – investors, media talking heads, economists and market watchers alike. Volatility is a great disruptor, but not in a Silicon Valley sense. Instead, think: bull in a China shop.

Could anything have foreseen this sudden reversal?

Most investors, and even pros, don’t realize it: YES!

Several indicators reliably predict volatility. You just have to know about them. (For a good overview of the best ones, check out 5 Tells a Market May Be About to Reverse.)

Here’s one: Watch the “bets” made by so-called Large Speculators, hedge funds and the like. As explained below, this is a contrary indicator. Here’s what one market analyst, Steven Hochberg, told his subscribers about the indicator on October 8th, just before volatility spiked and stocks plunged:

Large Speculators are making their largest bet in nearly a year that market volatility will remain subdued. Last week, this cohort of speculators increased their net-short position in VIX futures to 140,444 contracts, the largest bet on a low VIX since November 2017. … Large Specs often make their biggest bets near trend reversals, catching them in wrong-way bets at the wrong time.

Large Specs and other “big boys” tend to make “wrong-way bets at the wrong time.” That propensity was again on display just two days after the forecast you see above — on Oct. 10, when the DJIA closed more than 800 points lower. That was the index’s worst day in eight months, and the worst whipping for technology shares in seven years. Moreover, the volatility continued the very next day, with the DJIA closing down another 545 points.

Of course, volatility implies moves in both directions. By Oct. 16, the DJIA closed up more than 500 points, only to surrender more than 300 points on Oct. 18. Then came other triple-digit declines on Oct. 22-23.

The bottom line is that watching large speculators (and other sentiment metrics) can prepare you to take advantage of volatility rather than being blindsided by it.

If you are an investor who wants to be ready for volatility, download the 5 Tells a Market May Be About to Reverse report here, instantly. It’s 100% free!

The post Watch This Indicator if You Want to Get Tipped Off to Approaching Volatility appeared first on Marketcalls.