The “moving average” is a technical indicator of market strength which has stood the test of time.

Over 30 years ago, Robert Prechter described this indicator in his essay, “What a Trader Really Needs to be Successful.” What he said then remains true today:

…a simple 10-day moving average of the daily advance-decline net, probably the first indicator a stock market technician learns, can be used as a trading tool, if objectively defined rules are created for its use.

So, what is a moving average?

Learn How You Can Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Learn how to apply them to your trading and investing with this free 10-page eBook from Trader’s Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now.

Elliott Wave International’s Jeffrey Kennedy, a 25-year veteran of technical analysis, provides an answer:

A moving average is simply the average value of data over a specified time period, and it is used to figure out whether the price of a stock or commodity is trending up or down.

One way to think of a moving average is that it’s an automated trend line.

Kennedy offers an array of examples and insights about moving averages in the instructive guide, “How to Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages.” Below, you see some of Kennedy’s charts.

Let’s begin with the most commonly-used moving averages among market technicians: the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. These two trend lines often serve as areas of resistance or support, levels the market needs to “respect” in order for the trend to continue.

For example, the circled areas in the chart below show you where the 200-period SMA provided resistance in the DJIA’s rally back in April-May (top circle), and the 50-period SMA provided support (lower circle):

Let’s look at another widely used simple moving average which “works equally well in commodities, currencies, and stocks,” according to Kennedy: the 13-period SMA.

In the sugar chart below, prices first crossed above the red SMA line, which led to a substantial rally. The circled area shows you the first time the price crossed below the SMA, which came to indicate a change in trend from bullish to bearish:

Kennedy’s “How to Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages” also informs you about a useful tool to help you avoid “whipsaws.”

Indeed, the first two chapters reveal:

• The Dual Moving Average Cross-Over System
• Moving Average Price Channel System
• Combining the Crossover and Price Channel Techniques

Jeffrey Kennedy’s insights are all about making you a better trader.

Learn How You Can Find High-Confidence Trading Opportunities Using Moving Averages

Moving averages are one of the most widely-used methods of technical analysis because they are simple to use, and they work. Learn how to apply them to your trading and investing with this free 10-page eBook from Trader’s Classroom editor Jeffrey Kennedy.

Begin to improve your trading and investing with Moving Averages today! Download Your Free eBook Now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Moving Averages Help You Define Trend – Here’s How. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The post Moving Averages Help You Define Trend – Here’s How appeared first on Marketcalls.

Everyone likes to catch trend earlier. How to recognize and monitor the changing trend much ahead of your competition? When the price is testing a psychological reference most of the traders are in active mode. This tutorial explores how one can access the odds using the market profile with a greater conviction where short-term trend reversal happens close to the psychological reference.

There are many cases if you watch very carefully price does a lot of whipsaw around psychological reference before making a trending move. Psychological reference is nothing but round numbers where most of the short-term traders are active. For example levels like 10000, 11500, 25000, 1700, 100, 150, 25 they are round numbers or multiples of 25, 50, 100, 500 or 10000. Multiples of 100 or 1000 are often considered as a major psychological reference. And the psychological reference mostly depends on where the price is trading currently and more traders have a habit of placing their stops around psychological reference.

Let take a very recent example in ES-Mini Futures (US Markets). Where recently price tested 2800 (psychological round number reference). It whipsawed a couple of times before making a trend reversal very close to psychological reference.

How one can capture those trending odds?

1)On Thursday morning trading sentiment is extreme as price opens gap down because of the new sentiment

2)My assessment of sellers confidence is high at the open as the price opened gap down. Also, price opened gap down below 2800 psychological mark in ES Futures. When the price takes 3 day or 4 day low (or even multi-day) that lower references serve as a monitor for further high confidence selling. Now monitoring POC plays a major role in accessing the developing market confidence.

i)Later part of the day if DPOC is building lower below 3 day low that indicates further high confidence selling.
ii)if price flips back into the 3-day range and DPOC starts building above 3 day low then sellers showed up are not serious enough.

3)When the news sentiment goes to extreme followed by a ABC flip which increases the odds of an early trend reversal.

On 2nd Aug despite negative news sentiment ABC flip happened with 3 day breakout failure at the earlier part of the day. That once again increases the odds of a possible ORR setup and possibly increased the odds of DPOC building above 3 day low. i.e early morning sellers are not serious enough.

4)At the C period (i.e third half hour period) price also backs above 2800 levels which adds to the confirmation that sellers are not serious enough.

5)At this point of time, my thoughts would be either a balanced or a higher odds of reversal if the previous short-term resistance Double Distribution Balance 2817 and Multi Distribution balance are likely to take out by EOD. That completely turns the odds of market profile trading sentiment to positionally positive.

5)Could see Higher reversal odds if the ABC flip + POC building above 3 day high and the ORR setup adds up to short-term reversal.

Based on all the above combinational factors ( 3day breakout failure + ORR + POC building above 3 day low + Extreme news sentiment + Price stays above 2800 psychological reference) one should be able to monitor for an early trend reversal rather than getting trapped in the news based emotional gap down and also one can further monitor for continuation of the trending move as well which is mostly based on further development of the profile structure.

Not every trend reversal happens with this sort of setups. Everytime trend reversal setups are likely to be different but if you follow the right framework in accessing the reversal odds then one can stay ahead of the competition.

The post Market Profile Tutorial on How to access the odds in Short term trend reversal? appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures closed with a negative note despite evading Turkish Lira crisis and Chinese Tradewar & slowdown fears. USDINR is currently trading around 70.30 hits a fresh all-time high on 16th Aug 2018. Nifty Futures trading sentiment and market profile sentiment holds negative with immediate short-term resistance around 11450.

Volatility is a bit elevated with IndiaVIX maintaining 13.65 levels. Call writers are active at 11400CE & 11500CE that puts immediate EOD resistance at 11400 in Nifty Spot and Expiry Support comes around 11000-11100 band.

When comes to Global Markets Shanghai Composite & Hang Seng trading at a fresh 2018 low. Which brings a greater divergence between Chinese markets and Indian markets.

On Thursdays trading Nifty Futures opened lower in line with the global sentiment. Initial trading confidence is not strong from the sellers. However mid of the day sellers came and push the price downwards and later in the last 45 min buyers came and supported exactly at the previous week low reference.

Value build lower on Thursday trading with Poor high formation at the days top. G2 High formed at 11480. However, G2 High is not an immediate focus as long as trading sentiment remains negative.

Weak Short term buyers are witnessed in the last 3 trading sessions this week. Thus far momentum sellers are lagging in the August expiry contract. Bias is still focused on the downside with a possible test towards 11354 (AB Poor Low). Gap Support at 11181 and G2 Low at 11118.8

From the participation OI details both Clients and FIIs shown major interest in buying Index Futures till to date for this series. And it is surprising to see FIIs maintaining historically low open interest when comes to Index Call Options.

The post Nifty Futures Mid Month Technical Analysis Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the recorded video on how to create custom indicators, scanners/exploration, trading strategies, Signal Generation, Performing Technical analysis and even test/validate your trading models. If you want to learn Amibroker and AFL Programming Language one step better then this course is for you. Currently, access is limited to Amibroker AFL Programming online webinar participants.

The post [Premium] Amibroker AFL Programming – Aug 2018 Recorded Webinars appeared first on Marketcalls.

E-mini S&P 500 future derivative contract is based on the underlying S&P 500 stock index(US Market). ES-Mini is showing an interesting structural pattern when comes to market profile with trend reversal odds. The structural pattern also reveals the significant risk in holding to the longs as the short term inventory goes long to too long.

The post [Premium] ES Mini – High Probability Trend Reversal – Market Profile appeared first on Marketcalls.

Pharma is an interesting sector to watch out for the rest of the year 2018 as Nifty Pharma Index today touched the psychological reference 10000 levels and also managed to close above 10000 levels which are also fresh 2018 year to date high. Interestingly Weekly sentiment turned positive in the pharma sector that brings more medium-term bullish momentum in this counter. Monthly Sentiment too holding positive for the last two months which brings long-term bullishness in this counter.

Nifty Pharma is currently trading above Nov 2017 high. Immediate resistance is expected around 10700 levels. Buy on dips prevails in this counter as the extreme sentiments in Nifty Pharma is currently turned to moderately bullish sentiment. Here is out past extreme sentiment analysis on Nifty pharma – 6 Reasons Why Nifty Pharma Will Make 50% upside from here.

News and Earnings results perspective still it is a mixed sentiment there. At least too much of negativity is gone out for time being. Possibly that could have at least forced out some of the perma-bears out of this counter. All the higher timeframe are indicating bullishness. Possibly a consolidation here is much required to establish a newer base as always trading around the psychological reference is not going to be an easier game. Stocks making a breakout in this counter could be scanned for further investing decisions.

The post Nifty Pharma Crosses 10000 levels appeared first on Marketcalls.

Bullish Momentum in USDINR Kickstarted during the start of June 2018 and most likely to extend till the Sep 2018. USDINR also tested all-time high 70.89 on 14th Aug 2018. What is really missing compared to the majority of the EM Currencies is that Extreme bullish momentum seems to be missing thus far.

Here is the quarterly market profile view of USDINR where currently medium-term supports are developing around the zone 69.3 levels. This quarter USDINR spent most of its time balancing around 68.75 levels with possible value building higher. Momentum and value gearing up higher. Possibly, in this situation, one can think about an extreme bullishness in USDINR here reflecting inline with the majority of the EM currencies sentiment.

Short-term and Medium-term Bias remains bullish as long as the short term support at 69.3 holds possibly 72-73 levels are expected faster by Sep 2018.

The post USDINR Medium Term Technical Analysis Overview appeared first on Marketcalls.

Learn the nuances of trading/investing strategies, the art of chart reading and picking up high probability trades. It is an educational workshop for active traders focused on how to pick low-risk, high potential entry points for your trade.

What you will learn?

1)High Probability Positional Trades using Traders Behavior.
2)Learn to Identify potential short covering rally/Long Liquidation setups.
3)Lean when to use supertrend and when not to use supertrend.
4)Lintra – Intraday and Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty.
5)Vlintra – Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty and High Beta Stocks.
5)Vlintra – Ultimate – Intraday Portfolio Trading System and How to Automate it.
6)How to understand the emotions behind gaps and how to trade gaps.
7)When to trade – before the event / post the event.
8)Managing the Risk with Heding Positions.
9)Potential Market Top/Bottom Setups using Market Profile.
10)Money Management Practices, When to Scale in/Scale Out.
11)How to setup professional charting desk/ required software tools/accessories.
12)How to Identify sideways markets using Expected Value.
13)How to Identify Trading Range for Nifty using PCR charts.
14)How to Identify where most of the traders keep their stoploss.
15)How to Identify the Market Confidence using Market Confidence Indicator.
16)How to Identify Trend Cycles using Turbo RSI.
17)Learn to do Top Down Analysis and How to build a successful day trading plan.

Where do I attend the course?

About the Mentor

Rajandran is a Full time trader and founder of Marketcalls and co-founder of Traderscafe, hugely interested in building timing models, algos , discretionary trading concepts and Trading Sentimental analysis. He now instructs users all over the world, from experienced traders, professional traders to individual traders.
Rajandran attended college in the Chennai where he earned a BE in Electronics and Communications. Rajandran has a broad understanding of trading software like Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Esignal, Metastock, Motivewave, Market Analyst(Optuma), Metatrader, Tradingivew, Python and understands individual needs of traders and investors utilizing a wide range of methodologies.

Benifits of Attending the Workshop

1)Lifetime Access to Marketcalls Private & professional trading community
2)Access to Recorded Webinars on Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Options Studies, Market Profile , Harmonics & Volume Analysis
with more than 100+ hours of recorded webinars
3)Access to Tradestudio ( Marketcalls Proprietery Trading Systems/Indicators/Scanners/Algos/Trading Alerts)

Pre-Requisites
Knowledge about Futures and Options Trading Concepts, Basics of Technical Analysis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I attend the programme?

The course suits for day timeframe traders, positional traders and a mix of traders looking for active investing/active trading strategies.

What are the Software Tools used in the Workshop
Technical Analysis Softwares like Amibroker and Ninjatrader will be used predominantly.

What is Trade Studio?
TradeStudio is a Amibroker Plugin Worth Rs20,000/- which gives access to set of Marketcalls Proprietary Custom Indicators, Trading Strategies (Intraday & Positional) & Scanners from Marketcalls. All the attendees will get the privilege of accessing in Trade Studio in Amibroker up to 1 Year.

How do I contact the Instructor post the course?
Lifetime Slack Access will be provided to our private trading community where we will be discussing algo trading, trading strategies, trading api and best practices.

Do you Provide Wifi Facilities at the Venue?
No, Participants are requested to bring their own 3G/4G dongle.

The post [Online Workshop] Trading Strategies for Active Traders appeared first on Marketcalls.

Last 4 sessions most of the trading activity happens in a tightly packed band between 11540 – 11600 zone which is an interesting reference zone. On Friday quick flip strategy enters into a shorting mode with resistance comes around 11573 levels which where the price is also closed exactly. The quick flip strategy could turn to buy mode if on Monday price opens and sustains above 11562 levels possibly it could target 11620 levels again.

Nifty Futures 5min Charts

Price sustaining below 11555 on Monday could let the quick flip strategy to continue in a negative mode possibly towards the downward reference 11508 and 11350 levels.

On the daily timeframe indicator sentiment still holding positive for the last 5 trading session and could continue to remain positive if price holds above 11562 levels.

The post Nifty Futures Short Term Outlook – August Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

Historical PE-Ratio of Bank Nifty Since 2001

Here is the historical PE-Ratio of Bank Nifty. Recently there is a hockey stick growth in PE ratio of Bank Nifty. NIFTY Bank Index comprises of the most liquid and 12 large Indian Banking stocks from the Banking sector. Surprisingly top 3 constituents namely HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK & KOTAK Bank alone contributes to 65% of the weightage.

Current PE Ratio stands at 58.33 which is exponential and it is more than a double compared to 1st Jan 2018 PE ratio of Bank Nifty which stands at 26.98. Just in less than 20 months of time PE ratio skyrocketed. A high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future and on the other side it also means kind of overbought levels from the investing timeframe perspective.

The current Total market cap of Bank Nifty Stocks comes around 17,68,885.10 Crores. Most of the exponential move comes from the year 2017 annual gains 41% which is quite phenomenal followed by 9% YTD gains during the year 2018 so far.

Bank Nifty – Top constituents by weightage

Just 3 private sector banks have an approximate weightage of around 65% in bank nifty. One of the reasons even wild swings in Public Sector banks almost have no impact in moving the Bank Nifty index. Since the start of the year 2018, Bank Nifty had gained 9.2%. However, PSUBank Index had lost 12.99%. Despite PSU Bank losing the majority of its gains post bank recapitalization, BankNifty managed to test All time high. However, PSU Bank Index is not.

Bank Nifty Top Stocks – 1 Year Peformance

So, What do you think? What could possibly go wrong this time? Is it different this time?

The post What could Possibly Go wrong with Bank Nifty? appeared first on Marketcalls.

Monday trading session opened with a gap up with high buyers confidence and also it is a trend day in Nifty futures. Buyers confidence remains high until the end of the day. However short-term trading sentiment is getting extremely positive – sort of cautious signs of longs.

Despite the bullish confidence if Nifty Futures maintains below 11710 – 11706 band which is a cautious sign that possibly resistance is getting built around that region. It will not trigger a sell. However a possible warning sign for profit booking on longs. A short-term sell could possibly trigger below 11640 levels.

On the daily timeframe indicator sentiment still holding positive for the last 6 trading session and could continue to remain positive if price holds above 11690 levels on EOD closing basis.

The post Nifty Futures – Extreme Bullishness during August Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty 5min Charts

Quick Flip is an interesting short-term trend following trading system from marketcalls for identifying quick turns in the markets and to take faster trend decisions in identifying the short term support and resistance.

Strategy comes with Buy & sell Indications. Green Arrow indicates Buy Signal and Red Arrow indicates Sell Signal. Green Bars indicates a bullish trend,
red bars indicate a bearish trend, grey bars indicates neutral bars.

Traders/Investors can access the QuickFlip Trading System from Tradingview Portal.

Chart Background Settings

Recommended Parameters for Trading.
Per1 = 100
Per2 = 200

Recommended Parameters for Investing
Per1 = 50
Per2 = 100

Nifty Daily Charts

The post Quick Flip Trading System – Tradingview Indicator appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures On Wednesday trading session opened with good Buyers confidence however profit booking started happening post the first 10minutes of trading activity. Trading range was dull most part of the day except the late buyer’s show off in the last 30min. Overall previous days Extreme bullish confidence maintained for the day.

Two consecutive gaps in Nifty Futures remains open in the last two trading session. Out of that one is a weekly gap.

Immediate Short-term supports coming around 11690 levels. Price opening below or trading below 11743 is a likely sign for price testing mostly likely around 11700-11690 levels. A short-term sell could possibly trigger below 11690 levels.

On the daily timeframe indicator sentiment still holding positive for the last 7th trading session and could continue to remain positive if price holds above 11690 levels on EOD closing basis.

The post Nifty Futures Short Term Supports around 11690 levels appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty cooled down a bit from the extreme bullish sentiment on wednesday trading which also closed the tuesday gap. Last 30min sell-off turned Nifty to a late spike on the downward. That triggered a sell mode in quick flip strategy with immediate resistance comes around 11727 levels. In a short term 11712 – 11727 needs to be monitored for the continuation of sell signal. As long as price stays below 11727 sell mode holds Nifty Futures.

Last two trading days have been predominantly dull boring day during most part of the trading session.

On the daily timeframe indicator sentiment turned negative. It is a soft turn so far not an aggressive one. So any flip above 11727 could put nifty in a tight trading range 11700 – 11800. However price staying below 11727 immediate levels to watch out on the downside are the weekly gap levels 11605.

The post Nifty Futures – Resistance built around 11727 appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures September expiry kick-started with high volatility. Short term quick flip signals turned positive with immediate supports coming around 11655 levels. Price holding above 11715 levels will bring renewed buying pressure. Price holding above 11715 levels has to be watched on the closing basis

Upside so far remains capped around 11820 levels. Possibilities of consolidation in the market in this zone in a very short term.

Nifty daily sentiment maintains negative for the 3rd trading session. Option Writers are no so concrete in their decisions at this time as the series itself young. Call writers are defending around 11800 levels on the higher side. On the downside put writers are currently active at every possible downside levels.

Overall market is likely to consolidate around 11700-11800 in a very short term. Current short term bias holds positive for time being.

The post Nifty September Expiry Begins with Volatility appeared first on Marketcalls.

Do simple Trading strategies really work in Indian Markets? This curiosity in me raised again, after looking into a simple backtest buy at today’s close and sell at next day open which produced phenomenal returns of whopping 568% since 1993 in SPDR S&P 500 ETF (US Market). How about doing similar BTST strategy in Nifty Futures?

But in order to do trading (Buy & sell transaction in the regulated exchanges), trader also involved in paying to the Exchange(Turnover Fees), SEBI(Regulatory Fee) , Govt(STT, Stamp Duty,GST,incomes tax if any), Broker (Brokerage) and to the market (Slippages). If you are a frequent trader possibly you could know that it is really tough to Buy exactly at market close and sell exactly at market open. Due to quick movement in market price, one has to buy or sell at a higher price than the anticipated price at market open or market close. Call it as market slippages or market volatility.

One way to perfect the simple BTST (Buy today sell tommorow) to a near real-time trading rule is converting the trading strategy to Buy Nifty Futures (Go Long) exactly at 3:15 p.m i.e very close to market square off time and Sell (Exit Long) Exactly at Next Day 9.30a.m to avoid market volatility at market open we sell 15min from the market open.

Backtesting Settings

What one could get is a stunning & superior result just by playing this simple rule. Returns are a whopping 595% returns since 2011 on a 1 lakh capital and betting one lot of Nifty Futures every time.

Equity Curve of 595% returns (Zero Transactional Cost Involved) on 1 Lakh Capital

Backtesting Results when No/Zero trading cost involved

So where is the catch? The real catch is there in transactional cost. Since the trading rule makes a trade every day, transactional cost plays a major rule in deciding the fate of the trading system in long term. So I now tried with 0.02% of the transactional cost (Exchange(Turnover Fees), SEBI(Regulatory Fee) , Govt(STT, Stamp Duty, GST, incometax if any), Broker (Brokerage) and to the market (Slippages)).

Backtest with 0.02% transactional cost

Surpringly, the system lost 67% of initial capital (1 Lakh) within 185 trades and there is no enough margin to take the next trade. So in order to place right position size, I increased the initial capital to 2 Lakhs this time. The system survived the worst drawdown period and able to make an absolute return of 94.65% over a period of Jan 2011 – July 2018. In compounded terms, Annual returns (CAGR) comes around 9.3%

Equity Curve with 2 Lakhs Initial Capital and 0.02% trading cost

Equity Curve with 2 Lakhs Initial Capital and 0.02% trading cost

Amibroker AFL – Buy Nifty Futures (Go Long) exactly at 3:15p.m and Sell (Exit Long) Exactly at Next Day 9.30a.m.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, most of the market performance comes by holding positions overnight. However one cannot capitalize the entire performance returns majorly due to higher number of trades involved and transactional cost. The key learning is just dont carried away with some viral backtest report circulated in social media groups. Try to get into deeper insights to understand the nuances and the risky nature involved.

The post Buy at Today’s Close and Sell at Next day Open – Do Simple Trading Strategies Really Work? [Part2] appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures continues to survive minor negative waves. The immediate short-term trend is positive with supports coming in 11713-11720 range. Global Markets sentiment ended moderately positive except the European indices on last Friday. Key economic indicator India Q1 GDP growth soars to a 9-quarter high of 8.2% Vs 7.7 Quarter-on-Quarter basis. This is the highest growth in two years and strongest since the first quarter of 2016.

On the Negative News Side, EM currency crisis is back around the corner and US President Trump’s proposed tariffs on $200 billion worth of imported goods from China, which could hit in early September.

However, call writers are active for the series at 11800 levels and indicator sentiment maintains negative for the 3rd consecutive session that could keep nifty in a rangebound balanced mode between 11720 – 11820 zones in futures. Only if the price level breaching below 11720 needs to be monitored for any downside bias.

Nifty Futures – Daily Trading Sentiment

At the money IV of Calls at 9.42 and At-the-money IV of Puts at 12.60 that shows markets are compressed and volatility is completely dead at this juncture. Nifty Futures is currently trading at a hefty premium of 55 points which indicates even a gap-up scenario on Monday trading session in the Nifty spot will have little effect on Nifty Futures as possibilities of this hefty premium could be adjusted on Monday morning if there is any possible gap up scenario.

Nifty Spot – 4 hourly charts

Higher timeframe quick-flip analysis indicates Nifty is currently in a neutral stance any positive momentum could further build only if Nifty spot is able to hold above 11710. Maintaining Grey bars in quick-flip trading system is a sign of a possible trend reversal. So one have to maintain cautious stance if Nifty Futures fails to show momentum above 11710 levels.

The post Nifty Futures – September Expiry Technical Analysis appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures Monday opened with higher but with low enthusiasm despite good GDP numbers on last Friday evening. Quick Flip indicator turned to sell mode around 2.45 after price started sustaining below 11713 levels. Interestingly day topped out in the first minute of the trading with clearly momentum sellers pushing the price downside for the last two trading sessions showing sign of positional weakness.

Sell off Continued aggressively in the last 2 hours of the trading session largely driven by momentum sellers. Immediate short-term resistance formed around 11692 levels. Further stops are visible on the downside around 11540-11554. Daily Sentimental RSI still continues to be in the negative mode for the 4th consecutive session.

Option writers at 11800CE took greater control over the open interest. So far highest open interest built-up among the September series. Overall Nifty Futures turned out to be positionally negative sentiment.

The post Deeper Cuts in Nifty Futures – September Series appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty futures Mondays weakness spilled into Tuesday’s session as well. Call writers at 11800 are stable for this series. Nifty managed to break and close down below previous week low 11613. Nifty Futures maintains positional sell mode with Immediate Quick Flip supports coming around 11573 – 11585 levels. Price holding above the support zone could bring a possible range bound action between 11573 – 11658 levels. However, momentum traders could step if price started accepting below 11573 levels.

Nifty Quick Flip Strategy 5min Charts

Indicator sentiment maintains negative for the 5th consecutive trading session indicating positional weakness. Momentum shorter-term traders are witnessed in the second half of the trading session. Volatility Index (IndiaVIX) shooted to 13.78%. Street Sentiment is down mostly due to currency hitting All time high, Ongoing EM Crisis and new FPI regulations. Foreign funds have started winding up or reworking their structure after India’s market regulator barred non-resident Indians from controlling them

Nifty Daily Sentiment

Overall Positional Negative sentiment persists with short-term momentum sellers in control for the last two trading sessions. On the downside 11507 remains as the immediate reference levels to look for. Trading Sentiment could turn up if price manages to sustain above 11640 levels.

The post Nifty Futures – Downtrend Sentiment Continues – September Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

What’s So “Cryptic” About Trading Cryptocurrencies?
Lots and lots. Trading is not easy, period. But a few things can help.

By Elliott Wave International

Here’s a cool parlor trick: If you want to bring a loud, rowdy room to a screeching silence, ask if anyone can explain how cryptocurrencies work.

Cue crickets chirping.

Turns out, the “crypto” part of the name originally signified the encrypted nature of digital assets and their anonymous owners. But it’s proven foretelling, as cryptocurrencies have become synonymous with a cryptic impenetrability the likes of which no modern mainstream financial market — especially not one so fervently embraced — has known.

Even the experts are stumped by the exact logistics involved in cryptocurrencies, as these recent opinions suggest:

• “[Cryptocurrencies] are volatile by nature and thus don’t follow traditional rules and conventions.” (May 22 Coindiary.net)
• “The public’s fascination with cryptocurrencies is tied to a sort of mystery, like the mystery of the value of money itself, consisting in the new money’s connection to advanced science. (May 21 The Guardian)

That’s the bad news.

But we’re happy to bring you the good news; namely: You don’t have to understand how cryptocurrencies work in order to forecast them.

For Elliotticians, the ultimate skeleton key to unlocking the mystery price moves of cryptocurrencies is Elliott wave analysis. After all, cryptos, like any other market, are traded in the open marketplace, where big groups of buyers and sellers try to outsmart each other, bidding prices up or down. Whenever large groups of people engage in collective activities, group psychology emerges. And few other market-forecasting tools are as good at predicting changes in market psychology as Elliott waves.

Our new, in-depth report titled “Crypto Trading Guide: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity” tells you more.

Here’s an excerpt from chapter one:

Strategy #1: Stand Apart from the Crowd’s “Madness”

The 2013 Amazon Finance bestseller, Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading, states,

“If you aim to be a consistently successful trader, then you must have a defined forecasting methodology — a simple, clear, and concise way of looking at markets to predict what’s coming. Guessing or going on gut instinct won’t work over the long run.

“If you don’t have a defined methodology, then you don’t have a way to know what constitutes a buy or sell signal.”

For thousands professional and individual traders around the world, that methodology is the Elliott Wave Principle. If you’re new to it, you can summarize its basic tenets as follows:

• Group psychology swings from excessive optimism to pessimism, and back again
• In the markets, group psychology forms repeating patterns in price charts
• Because these price patterns repeat, they are also predictable

Once you know which of the 13 known Elliott wave patterns your market is in, you can make a probability-based forecasts as to what’s next.”

But what about using this methodology on actual cryptocurrency price charts?

Well, let’s pick the world’s largest and first-established market, Bitcoin. On July 12, Bitcoin was eight days into a pernicious losing streak with no obvious relief in sight. Wrote one July 12 news source:

“Bitcoin is spiraling downwards, and this time the downside seems unstoppable.” (FX Street)

But for our Cryptocurrency Pro Service team, a very telling price pattern emerged front and center on Bitcoin’s chart: an Elliott third wave. On July 12, Cryptocurrency Pro Service prepped the bullish stage and wrote:

“A swift move up through 6390.04 will add confidence to the idea wave (ii) has bottomed and Bitcoin is headed higher. A third-wave advance, wave (iii) should eventually see Bitcoin trade well above 7000.00.“

The next chart moves forward in time and shows how Bitcoin’s prices rose, in-line with the Elliott wave rally scenario:

The truth is, cryptocurrencies are cryptic. Heck, when’s the last time a secret person with a fake alias created an untraceable currency for people to trade on an unregulated platform? Try NEVER!

Cryptocurrencies are also volatile, and thus risky as powder kegs. Every day, a new alt ICO coin debuts, named after some science fiction character or comic book hero (see: DASH, RIPPLE, NEO, TRON, and so on). Maybe one day, one of them will become another Bitcoin.

For those investors willing to commit to only the most reputable and proven crypto markets, and to choosing price charts that only exhibit clear and definable Elliott wave patterns — there is a way to probe the mysterious nature of crypto markets and identify high-probability setups.

Our free report “Crypto Trading Guide: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity” explains more. Each chapter demonstrates the power of the Elliott Wave Principle to explain some of the most unforgettable recent moves in the world’s top three cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum.

The free report gives you real-world charts and commentary from our top analysts as they navigate near- and long-term trend changes few others saw coming.

For example, remember back in 2012, when Bitcoin’s reputation and value was being bludgeoned to a pulp? One coin was barely worth $10. And yet, our president and Elliott Wave Theorist editor, Robert Prechter, saw a sea change in the currency’s future.

Here again, “Crypto Trading Guide: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity” writes:

Consider this quote from the August 2012 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist:

“Presuming Bitcoin succeeds as the world’s best currency — and I believe it will — it should rise many more multiples in value over the years.

“Be prepared to ignore the bad news, which will give other investors reasons to justify selling at the bottom.”

Result: Bitcoin went from $15 per coin in 2013 to $20,000 at its height in December 2017 — a gargantuan 133,233% gain.

The key to success in cryptos is to approach this wild market in a way that insulates you from the hype, frenzy and rumors — and helps you act when others flounder. Our free crypto trading guide helps you do exactly that. Read the complete “Crypto Trading Guide: 5 Simple Strategies to Catch the Next Opportunity“ now to better understand this fascinating market and all the potential opportunities it can offer.

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