How to set the TPO size? The most asked question among the market profile beginners. TPO (Time Price Oppourtunity) is the basic building block of market profile. Multiple TPO blocks jointly form profile structure (profile distribution).

The main purpose of reading profile structure is to visualize and understand what kind of participation we dealt or dealing for the current day. Profile structures reveal whether day timeframe traders or short term traders or any long term behavior is going on.

Price distribution is completely independent of timeframe. Every day one gets a composite profile distribution. Regardless of what TPO size is used price distribution remains the same. However lower the TPO size one can get finer details about the market participants behavior. Higher the TPO size lower the amount of data one could get about the participants behavior.

It is always recommended to go with optimal TPO size settings because an ultra-low TPO size brings more data points (more letters) and tough to read/process by compressing the charts and expanding every time. It is time-consuming but reveals a lot of finer details about market behvaior.

Too bigger TPO size gives fewer details as it some times miss pieces of information like anomalies, single prints which is crucial information from an intraday traders/positional trader perspective.

Following are the set of guidelines to set optimal TPO size,

How TPO Size is calculated in Market Profile Tool?

TPO size and Tick size are inter related in most of the trading analysis tools like Ninjatrader 7, Ninjatrader 8, Multi charts, Market Delta.

Usually if the Tick size == 0.05 (minimal possible price moment specified by the exchange) then actual TPO size has to be divided with actual Tick values to get the TPO value keyed into the trading software.

For a Instrument like Nifty futures where tick size = 0.05 and if one have to set the TPO size of 1 point then 1.00/0.05 = 20 is the TPO Size one have to key in the market profile indicator settings.

TPO Size settings in Ninjatrader 8

Choosing the optimal TPO size depends on three factors Tick Size, Volatility, Traded Price. 

For a 0.05 Tick size instrument Here is the Optimal TPO Size which I prefer to read market generated information.

If you are a BellTPO Market Profile Ultimate user then the following method is recommended to get the automated reference line properly.

Instruments TPO size based on Volatility

Higher the volatility in the market one can also prefer higher TPO size as the trading range increases during the high volatile markets it is always preferred higher TPO size to read optimal profile information.

One can also prefer ATR based TPO size for adapting to different market conditions.

TPO size can be fixed based on India VIX (Volatility Index). For example TPO size = 1 point in Nifty Futures if India VIX remains below 18 and TPO size = 2 or 3 if India VIX shoots above 18 levels.

Conclusion

I prefer to use Optimal TPO information for capturing max details about the market generated information. There is no thumb rule to set the TPO size for various instruments, if you find too much of information then one have to increase the TPO size or if you find too less of information from the profile distribution then one should reduce the TPO size. However the above mentioned pratice helps one to read the most of the market generated information.

I hope this tutorial helps you to identify the optimal TPO size settings required to read maximum amount of market generated which a trader cannot afford to miss.

Let me know in comments if you face any issues with TPO settings.

The post How to Set Optimal TPO Size to Read Market Profile Charts? appeared first on Marketcalls.

This recorded webinar contains both Theory & Practical implementation of Orderflow analysis during live markets. This orderflow course helps intraday traders/scalpers to understand how to utilize the tool to take better trading decisions.

This course covers 10+ scalping/intraday trading strategies using orderflow and also provides basic introduction to Market Profile to understand the markets better and how to combine Market Profile analysis with Orderflow analytics.

It helps traders
– to view the market objectively & build objective trading rules
– to identify high probability trading patterns
– to identify major intraday reversal points
– to understand the trader’s behavior
– Learn to identify key price acceptance/price rejection levels
– How to prepare for the intraday trading and design your game plan

This video access is currently available only for people who attended Orderflow Crash Course with valid membership

The post [Recorded Webinar] Crash Course on Orderflow – Feb 2019 appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty is spending in a broader consolidation range for the last three months in the band of 10600-11000 levels. Now its been nearing critical Quickflip resistance level 10960 on the hourly timeframe.

Quickflip is maintaining its short term sell mode since 18th Feb. Quick flip entered into short around 10802.9 levels so far under the drawdown of 100+ points.

Trading sentiment remains positive for the last 7 trading session and markets move totally in a compressed sideways action. Also the Mid point of the balance 10840-10850 zone could be consider as the bias zone for the sentiment to remain negative.

For continuation of downtrend Nifty Futures has to hold the quick flip resistance level 10960 and it should also manages to drag down below 10840 levels and sustain below that for lower trading odds towards break of 10600 or further lower towards 10200 levels.

The post Nifty Futures at Critical Resistance Level – March 2019 Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

This recorded webinar contains tutorials on how to use orderflow charts for intraday scalping/ day trading. Trading Strategies on orderflow is discussed from intraday/scalping perspective. Both Trend Breakout and Mean reversion trading strategies are discussed.

What to observe from order flow charts and how to observe the order flow charts i.e core foundational principles of orderflow is discussed to a greater extent. How one can make use of the trading strategies with ultra tight stops are discussed in this webinar.

More emphasis is provided on how to understand the underlying context before taking any trading decision during live markets.

Tools Used in the Webinar

1)Ninjatrader 8 Platform

2)Bell Orderflow Ultimate

3)Bell Delta

4)Bell Trend Analyzer

Topics covered in the Orderflow webinar

1. Basic Building Blocks of Orderflow, Delta, Cumulative Delta
2. Different representation of Orderflow views and its importance
3. Features of Bell Orderflow Ultimate and Settings
4. The commitment of Traders and Contract Reversals Explained
5. Types of Data Vendors and their data formats
6. Difference between Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 and Tick by Tick Feed
7. How Orderflow is plotted using uptick/downtick or BidxAsk methods
8. Difference between Orderflow and Bookmap
9. Introduction to Market Depth 101
10. Difference between liquidity and volume
11. How high liquidity and low liquidity affects the markets
12. What to Interpret from High volume nodes and Low volume nodes
13. Institutional Execution strategies
14. Principles of Orderflow
15. Importance of Stacked Momentum Buyers
16. How Smart money positioning and Unwind their positions
17. How to spot stop-hunting / Where most traders keep their stoploss
18. How to Identify Initiative Drive and Absorption auctions
19. How to Identify Trend reversals for scalping using orderflow
20. How to Identify very short term support and resistance levels
21. How to Identify failed breakout trading strategies for Intraday trading
22. How to Identify trend breakout trading strategies for Intraday trading
23. Momentum Trading and Momentum Exhaustion Trading Patterns
24. How to combine momentum exhaustion with Delta Divergence
25. Spotting Cumulative Delta Divergence
26. How to Identify Trapped Buyers or Trapped Sellers from Orderflow
27. How to make use of Unfinished business concepts
28. How to interpret R-Delta and MR – Signals from Orderflow
29. Which timeframe to use in Orderflow for scalping/intraday trading
30. Trading notes and Best Orderflow trading practices.

More live examples are quoted from recent trading data points/charts (Feb 2019 and Mar 2019 contracts of Nifty futures and Bank Nifty futures).

More Practice videos are added to the session to fasten the learning curve of the traders.

This video access is limited to TradeZilla 2.0 members and Orderflow Crash course participants with valid membership.

The post [Premium] Orderflow Trading Strategies Webinar – Mar 2019 appeared first on Marketcalls.

Which type of future contracts one have to use for Analysis/Trading. Should one have to use continuous contracts or non continuous contracts? One of the most repeated question faced from the beginner level to intermediate level traders.

Nifty Futures – Continuous contracts Vs Non continuous contracts

First let try to understand what is actually continuous and non-continuous contracts.

Continuous Contracts: Continuous contracts are stitched contracts to build a long term future charts. In a continuous contracts several contracts are stitched together post expiry to form a long term charts.

For Example : see the above Nifty Future charts where a February contract ended on 28th Feb 2019 and the next trading day March contract data is appended to the old Feb contract.

Whats the use of Continuous Contracts?

1)Long Term Structure can be studied. If you want to analyze the charts on Daily, Weekly or even hourly, 4 hourly timeframe then continuous contracts play a major role

2)For Backtesting data for an elongated period in one shot continuous contracts improves the productivity of the trader.

3)Continuous contract symbol remains the same for infinite period. So less data management and no need of changing the symbol every month post expiry.

Different Ways of Building Continuous contract

Continuation Charting : This method simply stitches older contract to the newer contract post the expiry of the older contract without any data adjustment. Rollover gaps will be seen in the charts if the newer contract has bigger premium.

Nifty Futures Daily Charts – Continuation Charting Method

Most of the Indian data vendors use continuation methods for NSE Futures without doing any rollover backdata adjustments. Just the old contract is stiched to the newer contract post expiry of future contract.

It is the most preferred contract by most of the traders who want to analyze long term charts or study the trading system behavior. But if one using the continuation charting for backtesting purpose then rollover costing needs to added in case of positional trading strategies and in case of intraday trading strategies it doesnt affect much.

Rollover gaps affects the indicator post expiry for a shorter period and depends upon the indicator lookback period. Especially if one is very much concerned about such information one should consider using non-continous contracts or rollover adjusted contracts.

Rollover Adjusted Charting: This method eliminates the rollover gap by back-adjusting the old contract data. The price of the previous expiry data points being dropped is adjusted upwards or downwards to the price level of the contract being picked up in the series on the day of the roll. This is the approach preferred by Jack Schwager and others.

Non Continuous Contract / Individual Contract

Non-continuous contracts are simply individual contracts. This contract holds the data since the inception of the contract until the expiry of the contract.

Nifty March Futures Contract

For Example : The lifetime of a any Nifty Future contract is 3 months. Lets consider Nifty futures march 2019 contracts. During the month of Jan or Feb or Mar the March 2019 contract remains the same.

During the initial phase of the start life of the contract liquidity is very low and one the contract is very close to near month expiry liquidity starts flowing in as most of the time.

Traders prefer to trade in current month contracts and if the expiry is getting near trader might consider shifting/rollover to near month expiry and so the liquidity flow starts picking up in near-month contracts during expiry is nearing. i.e march 2019 future contract will start seeing volume flow or more participation only during the nearing of Feb 2019 expiry.

What is the use of Non-Continuous Contracts?

Non continuous contracts are quite useful for shorter timeframe traders who rather non concerned about long term structure of the chart but fearing their indicators might skewed during the start of the new expiry.

Especially if you are a algo trader or market profile / orderflow trader or a trader operating at lower timeframe non continuous contracts are the most prefferred one for real-life trading.

But once the contract expires the trader have to manually move to newer symbols in their trading software. A little bit of pain is there during the expiry. But if one is really considering to eliminate such rollover gaps then mostly non–continous contracts are Top Priority.

What contracts to use for Market Profile Studies?

If you are a market profile user then some of the nuances one might miss during the start of the expiry in index futures if one is using continuous contract. However, those issues will not be there in non-continuous contract.

But when comes to stocks futures / index futures contract if one want to measure references from previous expiry then continuous contracts are preferred as stock futures gets mostly liquid only during the start of the newer expiry and so back data of non-continous contracts are not so liquid until the contract gets near month expiry. So taking references from ill-liquid zones are not a preferred one. In such a case one can always prefer using continuous contracts.

Conclusion

There is no right or wrong methods of using continuous / non-continuous contracts. However if the trader is concerned about productivity while backtesting then non-continuous contracts are preferred. Non continuous contracts are preferred for analyzing long term structure. However for real-life trading (Algo trading, Shorter timeframe trading, Market Profile, Orderflow analysis) non continuous future contracts are most preferred.

Most of the data vendors support both continuous and non continuous contracts and most of the brokers support only non-continuous contracts in their charting/trading terminals.

Handling non-continuous contracts bit of manual work is involved with many trading analysis software. But yes if you don’t have non continuous contracts or don’t want to take that manual pain of changing new contracts in your real-life trading then always one can prefer the next best available resource continuous contracts.

I personally use a mix of continuous contracts and non-continuous contracts. Continuous contracts to perform Top Down Analysis (Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 4-hourly, hourly timeframe) and non-continuous contracts for real-life trading and market profile, volume profile and orderflow analysis.

The post Continuous Future Contracts Vs Non Continuous Future Contracts appeared first on Marketcalls.

Measuring Short Term / Intraday trading inventory is the most underrated topic and very few market profile practitioners understand the importance of Trading Inventory and follow it religiously.

Here is a 150min of webinar where one learns what is inventory piling and how one can classify short term and intraday inventory conditions. Various scenarios discussed on short term and intraday inventory conditions so that one will have the ability to decode it in any market instruments under any market situations.

Following things are discussed in the webinar

1)What is Inventory Piling (overstocking)?
2)How short term players and intraday players piled up their inventory
3)Type of Market Profile references which explains what kind of traders are piling up inventory
4)Odd based thinking to take Intraday and Short term speculative positions using Trading Inventory conditions
5)News based events or Global Market reactions affecting extreme inventory conditions.
6)Better market understanding and thereby better trading decisions.
7)Case studies and Live examples on Inventory conditions.

This is a premium community webinar done for our slack members. Members who have valid Tradezilla 2.0 credentials or Orderflow Crash Course credentials will have access to this webinar.

The post [Premium Webinar] How to Measure Short term / Intraday Trading Inventory conditions using Market Profile appeared first on Marketcalls.

Learn to use Orderflow – the most powerful too to analyse the market activity and to interpret truly what is happening in the markets. This orderflow course helps intraday traders/scalpers to understand how to utilize the tool to take better trading decisions.

It helps traders
– to view the market objectively & build objective trading rules
– to identify high probability trading patterns
– to identify major intraday reversal points
– to understand the trader’s behavior
– Learn to identify key price acceptance/price rejection levels
– How to prepare for the intraday trading and design your game plan

Orderflow Trading Strategies – Basic

1.Basic Building Blocks of Orderflow, Delta, Cumulative Delta
2.Different representation of Orderflow views and its importance
3.Features of Bell Orderflow Ultimate and Settings
4.The commitment of Traders and Contract Reversals Explained
5.Types of Data Vendors and their data formats
6.Difference between Level 1, Level 2, Level 3 and Tick by Tick Feed
7.How Orderflow is plotted using uptick/downtick or BidxAsk methods
8.Difference between Orderflow and Bookmap
9.Introduction to Market Depth 101
10.Difference between liquidity and volume
11.How high liquidity and low liquidity affects the markets
12.What to Interpret from High volume nodes and Low volume nodes
13.Institutional Execution strategies
14.Principles of Orderflow
15.Importance of Stacked Momentum Buyers

Orderflow Trading Strategies – Advanced

1.How Smart money positioning and Unwind their positions
2.How to spot stop-hunting / Where most traders keep their stoploss
3.How to Identify Initiative Drive and Absorption auctions
4.How to Identify Trend reversals for scalping using orderflow
5.How to Identify very short term support and resistance levels
6.How to Identify failed breakout trading strategies for Intraday trading
7.How to Identify trend breakout trading strategies for Intraday trading
8.Momentum Trading and Momentum Exhaustion Trading Patterns
9.How to combine momentum exhaustion with Delta Divergence
10.Spotting Cumulative Delta Divergence
11.How to Identify Trapped Buyers or Trapped Sellers from Orderflow
12.How to make use of Unfinished business concepts
13.How to interpret R-Delta and MR – Signals from Orderflow
14.Which timeframe to use in Orderflow for scalping/intraday trading
15.Trading notes and Best Orderflow trading practices.

Live Orderflow Session

Where do I attend the course?

About the Mentor

Rajandran is a Full time trader and founder of Marketcalls and co-founder of Traderscafe, hugely interested in building timing models, algos , discretionary trading concepts and Trading Sentimental analysis. He now instructs users all over the world, from experienced traders, professional traders to individual traders.
Rajandran attended college in the Chennai where he earned a BE in Electronics and Communications. Rajandran has a broad understanding of trading software like Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Esignal, Metastock, Motivewave, Market Analyst(Optuma), Metatrader, Tradingivew, Python and understands individual needs of traders and investors utilizing a wide range of methodologies.

Frequently Asked Questions and Answers:

How is the course delivered?

After registering for the course you will be getting access to the webinar link. Webinar link
will be deivered 1-2 days before the course starts.

What Instruments Can I use to trade?

Course contents are designed relative to NSE Futures (Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stocks). However same concepts are applicable for any high liquid trading instrument.

Which Orderflow software do you recommend?

We recommend belltpo Orderflow tool on Ninjatrader 8 platform.

Do I get access to Past Orderflow webinars?

Yes you will 1 Year Premium membership to access past/present webinars on orderflow.

How can I get access to Marketcalls Private Trading Group?

You will be getting Lifetime access to Market Profile/ Orderflow trading community where we pratice Market Profile / Orderflow day in – day out.

Do I need any prior trading experience?

Basic Futures and Options Knowledge is enough. However, if you already have trading experience that will be an addon.

For Queries:

The post [Online]Crash Course on Orderflow – May 2019 appeared first on Marketcalls.

Intrabar halfback is an intraday trading reference which helps traders to spot where the trading money piles during market hours and this video tutorial help traders, how visually one can spot such reference to take advantage in their intraday trading opportunities.

Checkout the agenda here on our upcoming TradeZilla 2.0 – Mentorship program on Market Profile and Orderflow

The post Market Profile Quick Learn Series – Intra Bar Halfback appeared first on Marketcalls.

Bell Liquidity analyzer is a free & simple visualization tool from belltpo built for Ninjatrader 8 platform to visualize volume flow at candlestick level. It helps traders to visualize where big volume, small or moderate volume flow is happening.

By studying the volume flow one will be able to calibrate what kind of players drive the markets and whether the current auction is a weaker auction/stronger auction

How to Install Bell Liquidity Analyzer in Ninjatrader 8 Platform

1)Download Bell Liquidity Analyzer for Ninjatrader 8 platform

2)Open Ninjatrader 8 and Goto control center ->Tools->Import->Ninjascript Add-on

3)Select the downloaded Bell Liquidity.zip file

4)Restart Ninjatrader 8 platform

5)Now Open the Charts and apply NT8 platform and apply the indicator from the indicator section.

6)Bingo! now you are ready to use Bell Liquidity Analyzer

The post How to use Bell Liquidity Analyzer appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty currently trading around 11521 in Nifty spot making a one-way rally straight away from 10580 levels made during 19th Feb 2019.

Volatility was almost muted due to weekly expiry and also due to the upcoming holiday (Holi).

Immediate Key Reference Levels from Market Profile

1)Stealth Auction on 19th March 2019

2)Weak High at 11579

3)RPPOC and PPOC + Failed Auction Low at 11473 levels

4)G3 Low at 11434

Trading sentiment was much elevated due to renewed optimism from FIIs and later joined by short term trading community. However, trading optimism is at the extreme because of extreme indications entered above 3rd Standard deviation value.

Mini Liquidation breaks can be anticipated in this zone towards 10450 levels. However, march expiry is expected in the range of 10400-10650 levels.

Nifty Futures quick flip continuing its buy mode since 11th March onwards on the 5minute timeframe.

Current quick flip resistance comes around 11559. Volume flow was relatively good since Feb 26th, 2019. Below is the 30min charts of Nifty futures with highlighted yellow bars indicates transaction of 10,000 lots and red bars indicates 20000 lots which shows the steady supply from the institutions.

Nifty is likely to maintain low volatility until the current financial year is likely to get over. Overall price maintaining below 11560 brings temporary weakness.

The post Nifty Futures – Extreme Positive Sentiment appeared first on Marketcalls.

This webinar gives you the basic introduction to Market Profile and helps traders how to read market profile charts. And What one can understand from the Profile and Profile Distribution.

Date : 31st – March 2019
Time : 10a.m – 11.30a.m IST

Topics to be Covered

1)What is Market Profile?
2)How to Setup Market Profile Charts
3)What is Value Area and Point of Control
4)Importance of Prominent POC and R-PPOC
5)Profile Distribution Types
6)Signature Trades using Prominent POC and R-PPOC

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

The post Introduction to Market Profile – Webinar appeared first on Marketcalls.

Vlintra V5 is a trend following system based on VWAP + Linear regression based volatility channel with adaptive parameters based on four different volatile seasons. Vlintra V5 is part of Tradestudio package.

Basically Volatile seasons are classified into four categories

1)Low volatile season
2)Extremely low volatile season
3)High volatile season
4)Extremely high volatile season

input parameters are dynamically changed based on the changing volatile market dynamics. Volatility is measured on the hourly timeframe.

Strategy is ready to plug and play with Automated trading tools. However one can play with manual limit order execution as well.

Backtest Results from Jan 2011 – Dec 2018

Vlintra V5 – Equity Curve

Vlintra V5 – Drawdown curve

Vlintra V5 – Key Performance Metrics

Download Compete Backtest Report from Jan 2011 – Dec 2018

Currently download access is limited to Trading Strategy for Active Traders Members . For installation support connect with our support team at +91 9535133445 (9a.m – 6p.m IST Mon-Sat)

Download Vlintra V5 – Tradestudio Plugin for Amibroker

The post [Premium] VLintra V5 – Bank Nifty Futures 5min Positional Trading System appeared first on Marketcalls.

By Murray Gunn and Brian Whitmer

The pinhole puncture in the global “Fintech” bubble keeps growing, despite drastic attempts to seal it shut. The most recent and radical attempt occurred on February 18, when BaFin, Germany’s financial regulator, issued a temporary short-selling ban in Wirecard after its shares plunged 40% in less than three weeks. Wrote one news source, “Germany bans speculative attacks on Wirecard stock”, as if those shorting the market were wielding pitch forks and lobbing actual threats against the stock’s upside.

Incredibly, vilifying short sellers is as old as the market itself. The first short-selling ban occurred in 1610, after the Dutch East India Company crashed. Notorious short-seller Isaac Le Maire was barred from the market, leaving Amsterdam a pariah. In the 1790s, Napoleon Bonaparte charged short sellers with treason during the financial chaos of the French Revolution.

And, most infamous is Jesse L. Livermore, the brilliant trader who shorted the U.S. stock market in September 1929, earning $100 million ($1.7 billion in today’s money) in the ensuing crash. Livermore was publicly skewered in newspapers as the “Great Bear of Wall Street.”

Still, history shows that the draconian move of banning short selling is hardly effective. Amidst the Livermore debacle, the newly minted U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission made plans to reinstate a century-old short-selling ban, which didn’t go into effect until 1934 — after the U.S. stock market had already lost 89% in value. 

In 2008, the SEC, acting in concert with the UK Financial Services Authority, prohibited short selling in 799 financial companies to stem the bleeding from the subprime mortgage meltdown. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox gave this assurance of the ban’s efficacy: “The emergency order… will restore equilibrium to markets.”  Yet, instead, the global financial sector entered an accelerated and prolonged period of chaos and value destruction.

Now, we have BaFin’s attempt to save Fintech by banning short selling in one of the sector’s most iconic companies. BaFin noted the importance of Wirecard to the German market and economy, and heartened: “There was risk of further downward spiral without restrictions on shorting the stock,” echoing Christopher Cox’s confidence in 2008. The strategy won’t work, because short selling isn’t causing the market’s decline; an ongoing negative social mood trend in Europe is. As the most sensitive meter of social mood, Fintech stocks warned of this shift long before there was a sustained downturn. (See other signs of a negative shift in social mood across Europe here.

The first signs began to emerge last fall. In September 2018, we observed how the financial technology sector had become another benefactor of society’s blooming optimism. But that optimism had then reached a dangerous extreme, as evidenced in the soaring valuations and growth forecasts across the industry. Soon after, Wirecard replaced Commerzbank, a 149-year old institution, on the DAX 30 index. We warned, “The Global fintech Thematic Index [is]on course for a jaw-dropping setback. … In fact so many mania symptoms plague the sector that the sell-off could be catastrophic.”

Depicted below is the sudden reversal in Wirecard and the Global fintech Thematic Index that followed, in which the latter’s shares dropped 57%.

Jesse L. Livermore, the trader blamed for the 1929 U.S. stock market crash, was known to have said: “All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of: greed, fear, ignorance, and hope.”

When there’s hope, and prices are rising, short selling is deemed a necessary part of a balanced system that encourages free will speculation. When that hope turns to fear, short selling is then vilified as the cause of market crashes. We believe many of the components of that shift are well underway in Europe now.

Radical politics. Secessionist movements. Crumbling economies. Follow this link to discover more signs of a shift toward negative social mood across Europe.

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The post Save Fintech? Ban Short Selling. It’s Not That Simple appeared first on Marketcalls.

Thats Gold monthly timeframe showing consolidation in the band of 1050-1350 for the last 5 years. Monthly ADX is maintaining below 20 since the year 2017 that shows the dullness in the trend at the broader level.

However, on the Weekly timeframe, ADX is maintaining above 25 and pricing is one-timeframing for the last three weekly sessions and more time is spent trading around 1300 psychological round number levels.

And Gold Daily ADX values are currently below 20 levels indicating sideways markets.

Overall from the multi-timeframe trading – markets are moving up in a relatively slow fashion on a broader scale. Monitoring Daily ADX is much required at this movement as price moving along with ADX on the positive side could bring a cascading effect on the uptrend.

What to read from ADX?

If ADX is between 0 and 25 then the particular trading instrument is in a trading range. It is likely just chopping around sideways. Avoid these weak, pathetic stocks!

Once ADX gets above 25 then you will begin to see the beginning of a trend. Big moves (up or down) tend to happen when ADX shoots above 25

When the ADX indicator gets above 30 or 35 then higher the number bigger the strong trend!

If ADX reaches greater than 50 then one should see trends coming to an end and trading ranges start developing again.

Based on the above multi-timeframe analysis on ADX one could conclude that only Weekly timeframe is developing a trend rest the daily and monthly are consolidating. However rise in ADX on daily timeframe is the key for sustained and accelerating uptrend.

Monthly Breaking 1350 levels with accelerating ADX value on monthly timeframe is the key for long term sustained uptrend

The post Its Time for a Gold Perma Bull? – Long Term Analysis appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the historical PE-Ratio of Bank Nifty. This time there is a hockey stick growth in the banking index which is up by 10.42% during the month of March 2019 alone. In fact, touched the magical round number levels of 30,000 during intraday on 22nd March.

March 2019 Price Action was kind of maniac. It is like oneway drive towards heaven. And that one way drive ended on 22nd of March 2019.

NIFTY Bank Index comprises of the most liquid and 12 large Indian Banking stocks from the Banking sector. Surprisingly top 3 constituents namely HDFCBANK, ICICIBANK & KOTAK Bank alone contributes to 67% of the weightage.

Current PE Ratio stands at 60 which is exponential by any means and at historically at the extreme levels. A high P/E suggests that investors are expecting higher earnings growth in the future and on the other side it also means kind of overbought levels from the investing timeframe perspective.

Just 3 private sector banks have an approximate weightage of around 67% in bank nifty.

Bank Nifty Top Stocks – 1 Year Performance

So, What do you think? What could possibly go wrong this time? Is it different this time?

The post What could Possibly Go wrong with Bank Nifty? – Part 2 appeared first on Marketcalls.

If you recently heard about the term Yield Curve Inversion in TV channels, News or Social Media probably the analyst/journalist are referring to US Treasury Bond Yields. US Treasury Bond Yields are issued by the US government.

Why it is so important to track the Yield Curve Now?

Yield curve inversion is a sign that an economic contraction could be on the way. Many believe that the yield curve is the leading indicator for the economy. The yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.

US Treasury Bond Yields for Different Maturity

The last time such an inversion has occurred was 2007, about a year before the global financial crisis. And so the Global equity market reactions on last Friday. The spread between 3-month and 10-year U.S. yields goes negative on last Friday which is referred to Yield Curve Inversion

Not everyday we get to talk about eye-popping moves in govt bond markets! U.S. yield curve inversion for first time since 2007, Bund yields crashing below 0 pct, it's all happening. pic.twitter.com/IR46ChvmxD

— Dhara Ranasinghe (@DharaRanasinghe) March 22, 2019

Generally speaking bond value and bond yields have an inverse relationship. If the bond value goes up then that means the bond yields go down and vice-versa.

What is a Yield Curve?

Yield curve is essentially a summary of yields across the spectrum of maturities in the bond market from very short term to very long term.

Treasury Yield Curve Rates are commonly referred to as “Constant Maturity Treasury” rates, or CMTs. The CMT yield values are read from the yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 1, 2, 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years.

If one plots Bond Maturity on the X-Axis and Yields on the Y-axis we get a Yield Curve. Normally the yield curve slope upwards, means the long term bonds pay higher interest rates than the short-term bonds.

because if you are going to tie up your money for a longer period of time, usually as an investor, you’re going to want more for the compensation for the risk that you’re talking so those long-term bond yields tend to be higher.

Now it isn’t the case the yield curve is always sloping upwards. There are times when inflation is falling and long-term yield rates may come down relative to short-term yield rates and vice-versa.

The yield curve doesn’t always slope upwards sometimes it changes it shape for example the curve for time to time has been known to flatten and when that happens investors tend to believe recessions on their horizon.

How the Yield Curve Flattens?

Naturally, a flat yield curve is cause by either by the short term yields increasing or the long term yield falling. The Federal reserve (FED) have lot of influence on the short term bond yields. But the long term bond yields are harder to control.

If more people start buying long term bonds it will cause the long-term bond price to increase and so the drop in long term yields. That flattens the yield curve. In other words, investors believe that some greater risk is out there. May be the investors expect the future interest rates to fall which makes short term bonds less attractive or they expect other investments to perform poorly. Both of these come from the expectation that the economy is likely to slow down.

Yield curve inversion is clearly a sign that the market is worried about growth and moving into long term Treasuries from riskier asset classes.

The difference between the short term rates and long term rates is the proxy for bank lending profitability. Banks tend to borrow at short term rates and lend at long term rates, and so they can earn the yield spread.

And then the yield curve inverts or goes negative it becomes less profitable for the banks to lend and that tends to slow down the economic activity, because consumers aren’t able to get mortgages to buy houses or auto loans and business aren’t able to get loans to expand their business, and it can lead to a recession, which is why investors get very concerned about the flattening yield curve or yield curve inversion.

S&P 500 $SPX chart with every date in which the 10 year – 3 month yield curve was inverted pic.twitter.com/Mr2Czldy3B

— Troy Bombardia (@bullmarketsco) March 23, 2019

Here is the simple explainer from wall street journal about Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve.

So what do you think? Recession is ahead ?

The post What is Yield Curve Inversion? How it matters for Investors? appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is a community webinar where we discussed how one can get a combined equity curve and drawdown for a multi-system. And how one can plot the actual drawdown in terms of value rather than a percentage based drawdown.

Watch the video tutorial & Download the AFL code

Currently, Video tutorial and download access is limited to Trading Strategy for Active Traders Members .

The post [Premium] How to Get Combined Equity Curve and Drawdown Curve in Amibroker appeared first on Marketcalls.

Back in December, we wrote an article titled “Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market.”

In the piece, we noted that while most experts believe that central banks set interest rates, it’s actually the other way around—the market leads, and the Fed follows.

We pointed out that the December rate hike followed increases in the six-month and three-month U.S. Treasury bill yields set by the market.

What happened with this week’s Fed announcement? Well, you guessed it—the Fed simply followed the market yet again.

The chart above is an updated version of the one we showed in our last article. The red line is the U.S. Federal Funds rate, the yellow line is the rate on the 3-month U.S. T-bill and the green line is the rate on the 6-month U.S. T-bill. The latter two rates are freely-traded in the auction arena, while the former rate is set by the Fed.

Now observe the grey ellipses. Throughout 2017-2018, the rates on 3-and-6-month U.S. T-bills were rising steadily, pushing above the Fed Fund’s rate. During the period shown on the graph, the Fed raised its interest rate six times, each time to keep up with the rising T-bill rates. The interest-rate market is the dog wagging the central-bank tail.

Now note what T-bill rates have been doing since November of last year; they’ve stopped rising. Rates have moved net-sideways, which was the market’s way of signaling that the Fed would not raise the Fed Funds rate this week.

Too many investors and pundits obsess over whether the Fed will raise or lower the Fed Funds rate and what it all supposedly means. First, if you want to know what the Fed will or will not do, simply look at T-bills, as shown on the chart. Second, whatever their action, it doesn’t matter because the Fed’s interest-rate policy cannot force people to borrow.

See Chapter 3 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance for more evidence.

The post Fed Follows Market Yet Again appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures quick flip system ended positively with an extreme sentiment which brings the odds of possible short term correction. Nifty Futures went one way in the second half of the trading session rallying almost 180 points from the noon low.

First half of the day is dominated by low volumes with slow price drips followed by more momentum traders chasing the price in the second half with strong volume.

Extreme sentiment indicates caution and at times it attracts short term price correction. Any weakness could bring NF towards 11430 levels. Breaking 11430 could bring more bearishness towards Monday low of 11337 levels.

Trading Sentiment is currently holding negative for the third trading session since last Friday. For any strength, Nifty has to hold above 11480 levels. Failing to hold above 11480 levels bring more weakness towards 11430 and 11337 levels.

The post Nifty Futures – Quick Flip Overview – Mar Expiry appeared first on Marketcalls.

Breakout failure happens in many trading locations. Mastering failed breakout zones helps traders to make a successful trading career.

Volume is the key to bifurcate whether an intraday pattern is strong or a failed breakout. Here is a tutorial which uses market profile and order-flow to understand the context behind the intraday failed breakout.

The video tutorial explains how to anticipate a failed breakout move be right in your trading decision most of the time. what are the likely scenarios of reversal and how to wait for the trade location to perfect your entry points using market profile and order-flow concepts?

This premium video tutorial access is limited to TradeZilla 2.0 members. Members who have valid Tradezilla 2.0 credentials or Orderflow Crash Course credentials will have access to this webinar.

The post [Premium] How to Anticipate a Failed Breakout using Orderflow + Market Profile [Part 1] appeared first on Marketcalls.