By Elliott Wave International

Most economists and financial analysts believe that central banks set interest rates.

For more than two decades, Elliott Wave International has tracked the relationship between interest rates set by the marketplace and interest rates set by the U.S. Federal Reserve and found that it’s actually the other way around–the market leads, and the Fed follows.

The latest Federal Reserve rate decision on December 19 brought the usual breathless anticipation. Confusion reigned as the U.S. president as well as a former Fed board member publicly urged the U.S. central bank not to raise rates and many wondered if the Fed would “rescue” investors with a surprise decision to leave them unchanged. The Fed, however, did what it almost always does: it brought its rate in line with market rates.

The Fed increased its federal funds rate a quarter-point from 2.25% to 2.50%. As shown by the dashed line in Figure 1, the Fed’s move followed a rise in the six-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.36% to 2.56% and an increase in the three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield from 2.18% to 2.42% since the prior Fed rate hike on September 26. So, market rates remain nearly undefeated when it comes to predicting what the Fed’s actions will be.

Figure 1

Figure 2, a longer term version of the same relationship, is from The Socionomic Theory of Finance by Robert Prechter. It shows the federal funds rate as set by the Fed and the market-set three-month U.S. Treasury bill yield back to early 2000. This history shows that the T-bill market moves first and the Fed’s interest-rate changes follow. As a result, no one monitoring the Fed’s decisions can predict when T-bill rates will change, but anyone monitoring the T-bill rate can predict when the Fed’s rates will change. We demonstrated this ability in August 2007 by predicting that the Fed was on the cusp of lowering its federal funds rate dramatically. Figure 2 shows the timing and its aftermath.

Figure 2

Over the years, Fed leaders have indicated that they’re in the dark. On September 17, 2007, a CNBC interviewer asked former chairman Alan Greenspan, “Did you keep interest rates too low for too long in 2002-2003?” Greenspan instantly responded, “The market did.” In a November speech this year, current chairman Jerome H. Powell likened the Fed’s situation to walking through a living room when the lights suddenly go out. He said, “What do you do? You slow down and you maybe go a little bit less quickly, and you feel your way more. So under uncertainty of this kind, you be careful.” The Fed has recently racked up $66.5 billion in paper losses in its bond portfolio, far exceeding its $39.1 billion in capital. Would you trust an institution that lost so much money in the bond market that it sank to a net worth of negative $27.4 billion to tell you where interest rates were headed? The Fed continually follows the market because it lacks any other useful guide.

The same principle holds in Europe, the U.K. and Australia.See chapter 3 of The Socionomic Theory of Finance for the full story of markets’ global dominance of “interest rate policy.”

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The post Kendall and Hochberg: Interest Rates Win Again as Fed Follows Market appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty is had a crazy volatile day. Huge downswing followed by a steep recovery during mid of the day. And on the 15min timeframe quick flip trading strategy got into long mode in the last 30min of trading session with quick flip supports coming around 10830-10850 levels.

Current uptrend can possibly extend towards 10930 and 10970 levels in a very short term. Daily trading sentiment is holding positive for the last 3 trading sessions. Only a sustained close below 10830 is a worrying sign.

Nifty Daily Sentiment

The post Nifty Futures to continue short term uptrend appeared first on Marketcalls.

This webinar help you to explore the basic features of orderflow and how orderflow could help traders to look for better trade location. Three intraday scalping strategies are discussed in the webinar

i)R-Delta Signals

ii)Momentum Auction Reversals

iii)Trapped Buyers/Sellers

This video access is currently available only for people who attended TradeZilla with valid membership

The post [Premium] Orderflow Features and Orderflow Trading Strategies appeared first on Marketcalls.

By Elliott Wave International

Special Q&A With Alan Hall on Elections and Impeachment

At the end of this article you’ll have the opportunity to hear Alan discuss his impeachment research with ETV Correspondent Dana Weeks.

You cannot afford to miss Alan’s insightful political analysis. Please login to view the interview after reading the article.

Those who want President Trump to stay in office should hope the stock market rises, and those who want him ousted should hope it crashes.

Why? History shows that the stock market is a useful indicator of people’s attitudes toward the president. Socionomic theory proposes that society’s overall mood regulates both stock prices and the public’s perceptions of its leaders. Positive social mood makes society feel optimistic, bid up stock prices and credit leaders for their good feelings. Negative social mood makes society feel pessimistic, sell stocks and blame leaders for their bad feelings.

These tendencies are evident in presidential re-election outcomes. Presidents Hoover and Carter, for example, lost bids for re-election during trends toward negative social mood as reflected by declining stock prices. In fact, the stock market is a better re-election indicator than inflation, unemployment and GDP growth combined, as my colleagues at the Socionomics Institute demonstrated in a 2012 paper.

Social mood’s influence is also evident in the results of U.S. presidential impeachments and near-impeachments. Twice in history the U.S. House of Representatives has voted to impeach a president. In both cases social mood was trending positively, as reflected by rising stock prices, and in both cases the Senate voted for acquittal.

Figure 1

Figure 1 illustrates the timing of the first presidential impeachment. On March 2, 1868, the House of Representatives formally agreed to eleven articles of impeachment against President Andrew Johnson. The Senate took three separate votes, and each fell one vote short of the two-thirds majority necessary to remove Johnson from office. The Senate acquitted Johnson on May 26, 1868, during a stock rally that added to the 250% increase since October 1857.

Figure 2

Figure 2 shows that a substantial trend toward positive social mood preceded President Bill Clinton’s impeachment in the House and subsequent acquittal in the Senate. Note that some of the most serious events in the Monica Lewinsky scandal coincided with the largest downturn in the Dow during Clinton’s presidency. Yet, as the Dow recovered, so did Clinton’s approval ratings. And despite a $70-million prosecution of Clinton’s related perjury and obstruction of justice charges, the Senate acquitted the president as positive social mood lifted the Dow, Dow/gold and Dow/PPI to important peaks.

Figure 3

President Richard Nixon’s near-impeachment and resignation from office serves as a textbook case of how social mood influences the fortunes of public figures. Figure 3 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average surrounding his time in office. The soon-to-be infamous Watergate break-in occurred toward the end of a strong 67% rally in the Dow from May 1970-January 1973. That trend toward positive mood helped Nixon win re-election in a landslide. But as mood trended toward the negative, the public’s view of its leader darkened, its appetite for scandal increased, the investigation accelerated, and Nixon’s fortunes changed. With almost certain impeachment looming, Nixon became the first president to resign from office on August 9, 1974.

Figure 4

What does this history tell us about the probability that President Trump will serve a full term in office? We considered this question in the June 2017 issue of The Socionomist. Figure 4 is a chart from that issue, updated to the present. It depicts the trend of social mood as reflected by the Dow. We left the gray arrows showing our 2017 analysis in place, and we added red arrows to indicate the possibilities going forward. In July 2017, Congressman Brad Sherman formally introduced an article of impeachment against the president in the House of Representatives. Yet as the market rose during 2017, President Trump–despite low approval ratings, tremendous staff turnover, unrelenting criticism from the political left and numerous indictments and charges of Trump associates in the ongoing Mueller investigation–did not face an impeachment vote. After the stock market peaked on January 26, 2018, however, the tone changed, and even some on the political right became more critical of the president.

Since the October 3 stock market peak, disapproval of the president has grown steadily louder and more strident. At the same time, the Mueller investigation has implicated more and more of the president’s inner circle in illegal activities. The Democrats won control of the House in the 2018 midterms. A November 26 Gallup poll revealed Trump’s disapproval rating had hit an all-time high. On December 10, Fox News’s senior judicial analyst Andrew Napolitano said Trump could be charged with “three separate crimes and could be indicted while serving as president.” By December 17, the Mueller investigation had issued more than 100 criminal counts and charged 34 people, 10 of whom have been found guilty. That same day, Wired published its list of “All 17 (Known) Trump and Russia Investigations” and said, “it’s increasingly clear that, as 2018 winds down, Donald Trump faces a legal assault unlike anything previously seen by any president.”

In the weeks since, the Trump Foundation agreed to dissolve, and Secretary of Defense James Mattis and diplomat Brett McGurk have resigned. On December 24, Time reported, “National Christmas Tree to Stay Dark During Holiday Due to Government Shutdown,” and several news organizations ran stories with versions of The Atlantic’s headline, “President Trump’s Nightmare Before Christmas,” as the stock market plunged. Of course, stalwart supporters of the president remain. Yet the number of oppositional voices is rising. A December 19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that 41% of Americans favor impeachment hearings.

We don’t know what the Mueller investigation will ultimately reveal, but for Trump, the facts may not matter as much as the social mood. Fasten your seatbelt and keep your eyes on stock market indexes, our best reflection of the trend of social mood.

Q & A With Alan Hall on Elections and Impeachment

You’ve read his essay, now hear from Alan Hall himself — including how he connects the dots from election research to impeachment, plus how he hopes to “get thru” to people whose minds are already made up.

Don’t have an EWI Login? No worries! Join Club EWI, our free Elliott wave educational community, and gain free access to this resource plus a full catalog of other valuable lessons. Plus, we’ll keep you updated with new resources, exclusive invitations, and deals.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Will Negative Social Mood Oust Trump? Watch the Stock Market. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

The post Will Negative Social Mood Oust Trump? Watch the Stock Market appeared first on Marketcalls.

Here is the Top Down Analysis or Multi timeframe Analysis on Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures to get a birds-eye perspective and not to miss the bigger picture. Starting from Quarterly timeframe will drill down to monthly, weekly, daily , hourly timeframe to get a fresh outlook into what kind of trading environment we are in.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIJ4CxqzsTw

The post Multi Timeframe Analysis – Nifty Future and Bank Nifty Future Jan 2019 appeared first on Marketcalls.

First ever hindi webinar from marketcalls on how to send automated orders using Amibroker software and Algoaction Platform. This webinar will be the basics of how to kick start your career in automated trading.

Language used : Online Webinar (Hindi)

Objectives:

How to use Amibroker & Algoaction tools to perform automated trading

Date : 18th Jan 2019 (7.30p.m – 8.30p.m)

Agenda

1)Introduction to Algotrading
2)Algotrading requirements
3)Tools required for setting up Algotrading.
3)How Algoaction simplifies algotrading requirements
4)Algoaction Features
5)How to send algo orders from Charts/scan/exploration
6)Q&A Session

Register for Online Webinar

If you are very new to Amibroker software then start learning basics of Amibroker and its features (explained in hindi)

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKUyIFDmY-U

The post Algotrading using Amibroker – Hindi Webinar appeared first on Marketcalls.

Learn to use Orderflow – the most powerful too to analyse the market activity and to interpret truly what is happening in the markets. This orderflow course helps intraday traders/scalpers to understand how to utilize the tool to take better trading decisions.

It helps traders
– to view the market objectively & build objective trading rules
– to identify high probability trading patterns
– to identify major intraday reversal points
– to understand the trader’s behavior
– Learn to identify key price acceptance/price rejection levels
– How to prepare for the intraday trading and design your game plan

Introduction to Orderflow – Crash Course

Lesson 1 : Introduction to Auction Theory, Orderflow & Market Depth 101
Lesson 2 : How to Setup Orderflow Charts, Orderflow Settings, Datafeed Vendors
Lesson 3 : Orderflow using Minute Bars, Range Bars, UniRenko Bars which one to use?
Lesson 4 : Understanding Market Participants
Lesson 5 : Importance of Delta & Point of Control
Lesson 6 : Orderflow Support & Resistance levels
Lesson 7 : How one can identify Absorption from Orderflow
Lesson 8 : Identify Orderflow Momentum Patterns & Momentum Exhaustion (Trend Reversal) Patterns
Lesson 9 : How to Combine Orderflow with Market Profile / Price Action Studies
Lesson 10: Best Orderflow Trading Practices
Lesson 11: Intraday Scalping Strategies using Orderflow
Lesson 12: Case Studies & Conclusion

Where do I attend the course?

About the Mentor

Rajandran is a Full time trader and founder of Marketcalls and co-founder of Traderscafe, hugely interested in building timing models, algos , discretionary trading concepts and Trading Sentimental analysis. He now instructs users all over the world, from experienced traders, professional traders to individual traders.
Rajandran attended college in the Chennai where he earned a BE in Electronics and Communications. Rajandran has a broad understanding of trading software like Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Esignal, Metastock, Motivewave, Market Analyst(Optuma), Metatrader, Tradingivew, Python and understands individual needs of traders and investors utilizing a wide range of methodologies.

Frequently Asked Questions and Answers:

How is the course delivered?

After registering for the course you will be getting access to the webinar link. Webinar link
will be deivered 1-2 days before the course starts.

What Instruments Can I use to trade?

Course contents are designed relative to NSE Futures (Nifty, Bank Nifty, Stocks). However same concepts are applicable for any high liquid trading instrument.

Which Orderflow software do you recommend?

We recommend belltpo Orderflow tool on Ninjatrader 8 platform.

Do I get access to Past Orderflow webinars?

Yes you will 1 Year Premium membership to access past/present webinars on orderflow.

How can I get access to Marketcalls Private Trading Group?

You will be getting Lifetime access to Market Profile/ Orderflow trading community where we pratice Market Profile / Orderflow day in – day out.

Do I need any prior trading experience?

Basic Futures and Options Knowledge is enough. However, if you already have trading experience that will be an addon.

For Queries:

The post [Online] Crash Course on Orderflow appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures are trading in a sideways compression mode for quite some time in Jan 2019 series. Both Nifty Futures and Bank Nifty Futures are trading very close to the current swing high levels.

Nifty Futures recovered almost 1000 points from Oct 2018 low and Bank Nifty recovered almost 3500 points. However, Jan 2019 expiry series is all about consolidating markets with Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures key support level comes around 10840 and 27300 levels respectively.

Nifty Futures 30-min Consolidation

Though immediate bullishness is witnessed in Nifty futures and expected to test Jan 1st High on coming monday. However failure to hold 11000 levels in the upcoming sessions and supports breaking on the downside during the later part of the session could be a potential reversal as far as medium term trend is concerned.

Nifty Futures Market Profile Charts

Stops built above 10960 levels with a Weaker ORR setup. And on the downside stops got built around 10895 levels. Possibilities stops hitting on both the sides needs to be evaluated on Monday trading session.

Bank Nifty Futures 30-min Consolidation

Bank Nifty Futures though it is consolidating currently trading very close to the long term balance and holding below 27600 levels as explained in the Multi timeframe analysis

Bank Nifty Futures – Market Profile Charts

Bank Nifty Holds a Poor Structure on 17th Jan. Inventory went long to too long. More short term buyers are crowded in the band of 27300 – 27600 zones

Stops got built below 27400, 27300 and 27000 levels in Bank Nifty Futures. Failure to sustain above 27600 is an indication of medium-term weakness and possibly 27000 could be the next destination in Bank Nifty Futures.

Volatility is expected to improve in the later part of the series as Union Budget 2019 is nearing. This compression which is happening currently is expected to end if 10840 and 27300 are likely to break on the downside.

The post Nifty and Bank Nifty Trading at the Upper Extreme appeared first on Marketcalls.

“My Orderflow is showing Big Buyers at day low and your orderflow is showing Big Sellers at day low which one is true?”

these is one of the frequent questions we get in our slack trading community which puzzles the orderflow traders most of the time.

To solve this question there is a simple and easiest way to figure out whether the executed order is from Aggressive Big Buyers/ Aggressive Big Sellers. The key to the answer is Tick Charts.

What is a Tick Chart?

1-Tick Chart is a price chart which plots the price at each and every price transaction where price goes up with upticks and goes down with downticks.

If you are seeing the uptick in the price then aggressive buyers (Market Buy Orders) are responsible for that individual transaction and if you are seeing a downtick movement in the price then aggressive sellers (Market Sell Orders) are responsible for the individual transaction.

How to Get Tick Charts?

If you are having authorized data vendor subscription (Globaldatafeeds, Esignal, Truedata) with Tick level charts supporting software (Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Multicharts…etc) then all you need is how to setup tick charts in your favorite trading softwares. Most of the Authorized data vendors these days supports tick level data points.

Gaps in Tick Charts

If you are seeing gaps in tick level charts that indicates no liquidity zones where the buyers/sellers are no present in that trade location to transact. Which usually happens when stop hunting happens or when price is in the process of discovering a new liquidity zone.

To explain this example look into Nifty Future Jan Contract on 22nd Jan 2019 (Time : 12:10:06 p.m) where a big selling volume happened with a gap. Almost 1917 lots or 1,43,775 shares transacted as shown in the below tick charts (Charting software used Amibroker, Datafeed used Globaldatafeeds).

Big Transaction happens here with a intra gap down on tick charts because the big seller executed with a market order which matched with the Big limit buy order on the orderbook (i.e next available liquidity)

Nifty Futures – 1 Tick Chart (Amibroker

How does it get visualized in Orderflow Charts

Here is the Orderflow Charts at the same time looks like on a 5min charting timeframe. Tools used (Ninjatrader8 + BellTPO). One should be able to visualize those Bigger sellers on the left side of the Orderflow ladder as shown below (i.e on Aggressive sellers side)

Nifty Futures 5min Charts (Ninjatrader 8 + Orderflow)

How Orderflow Charts are computed?

Orderflow charts can be plotted using two methods

1)Bid x Ask method

2)UpTick / DownTick method

both the methods are more or less reliable. In a Bid x Ask method orderflow charts are based upon executed transactions at bid or ask. And Uptick/Downtick method is used when there is no executed Bid x Ask information which still closely matches with Bid x Ask Information

Last time when I had a discussion with Globaldatafeeds Product owner real Bid x Ask information is transmitted at every 1 second interval. I guess true data also uses same interval to record ticks. However not sure of Bid x Ask recorded tick interval from Interactive Data (Esignal).

Conclusion

So next time before asking someone else just open your tick charts and verify yourself from your trading software whether the executed transaction is an aggressive buy order or an executed sell order. If it is a big aggressive buy order then the big volume transaction comes with the uptick in the price else if it is a big aggressive sell order then the tick charts shows big volume transaction with a downtick in the price.

Not only the Bigger volumes each and every tick / transactions from tick charts you should be able to match in your orderflow charts. If you are finding mismatch between your tick charts and orderflow then something is wrong with the orderflow tool that you are using.

So What does it imply if there is a Big Seller Volume Transaction at days low? Learn more in detail in our upcoming crash course on orderflow live training session.

The post [Orderflow Tutorial] Big Buyer or Big Seller at the Days Extreme? appeared first on Marketcalls.

How do you read the charts when you see multiple formations of Higher low formation on any given trend? How do you read charts where the trend is evolving slow and steady and not willing to give up or at least more difficult to break its previous swing low formation?

What could you think at the same time price is at the upper extreme not willing to give up a certain level on a higher timeframe. In that case what one is experiencing is a completely tight range bound difficult markets where buyers and sellers are extending their fight without giving up on each other.

Nifty Futures Hourly Charts

Lots of crowded buying happens at every 100 point interval. What kind of participants comes and accumulate at every 100 point interval? And Why the sellers are not willing to give up as well? These are questions which is running through my mind and asking myself how to deal with market situation in a better way.

Now the real question is how long this ping-pong fight among buyers and sellers are likely to extend? Does this tighter compression waiting for a major event like Union Budget and fresh trend to evolve post the events out of this consolidation?

Thinking from the seller side there is more desperation from sellers to break the previous lows every time. However, a lot of frustration remains among the sellers thus far since Oct 2018 low.

This market is being an amazing puzzle all the time. Instead of trying to think whether the Nifty could move to 9000 levels or 12500 levels narrow down the puzzle to lower timeframe and take one step at the time.

Interestingly markets often punishes people who hold a very unrealistic thought about market movements and very rarely they get rewarded for such a poor thinking.

Nifty 5min Charts

Quick Flip strategy on the 5min charts are at the resistance zone around 10884. Any upmove above could possibly bring a potential test towards 10920 and 10960 levels.

Wedensdays sell off went extreme however late recovery on Thursdays activity shows bit of reluctance from buyers to give up on current trend.

Any for any sustained positional weakness price has to start accepting below 10840 levels. Until then there is no point in thinking about positional weakness.

The post Nifty Futures Multiple Higher Low Formations on Hourly Timeframe appeared first on Marketcalls.

Price Action Trading is an art of trading without a single indicator.

Price is the Universal Truth. YOUR EYE IS THE TRUE INDICATOR

 The FLAG LIMIT STRATEGY  is the 1st and simplest power pattern in the 7 series advanced price action journey. This pattern tries to identify strong zones where the Buyer/Seller domination is interchanged. It also helps us to identify where there is high probable pending orders from the institutions.

This game is all about finding the institutional plots and stay with them as much as possible.

Speaker: ASHOK DEVANAMPRIYA

Ashok Devanampriya is the Founder director of Cautilya Capital. He is a seasoned stock market investment professional with a decade of experience in investing and trading.

He preaches the concept of Techno Fundamental Analysis of stocks to generate better returns and long term growth in Indian equity markets.

He is a Gann practitioner and works on Algo models to be built on Gann methods.

He uses price action methods along with Gann levels for positional trading.

He is also an algorithmic trader in the Indian derivative market. His robots run automatically without any manual intervention in the intraday setups. 

QUALIFICATIONS:

BE in Mechanical Engineering from P.E.S. Institute of Technology in Bangalore, India

MBA in Finance & Planning from Edinburgh University Business School – United Kingdom

Specialization in Effective Asset Mgmt from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Register for this powerful FREE WEBINAR scheduled on 9nd FEB 2019

Date :9th Feb 2019

Time :6PM to 8PM

Venue :Online Webinar

Register for the Price Action – Flag Limit Trading Strategy

The post Free Webinar on Precision Price Action – Flag Limit Trading Strategy appeared first on Marketcalls.

New to Orderflow analytics? here is a short webinar on the basics of orderflow which discuss about how to observe and what to observe from orderflow tool. How to interpret the information generated from orderflow and how to convert those information into meaningful trading decision.

Webinar Date & Time : 2nd Feb 2019 ( 10a.m – 11a.m)

Agenda

1)How to understand Orderflow charts

2)How to identify Key support / resistance level from orderflow for intraday trading/scalping

3)How to take better trading decisions using orderflow with tighter stops.

Join the discussion with us by registering in advance for the webinar

After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

The post [Webinar] Learn to Trade using Orderflow appeared first on Marketcalls.

Live TradeZilla 2.0 session conducted on Market Profile/Orderflow (Intraday / Positional Trading Strategies) on Budget 2019 Session .

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=2BkC4U_etxw

Learn to spot your trading edge using market profile and orderflow from our upcoming training session. Stay tuned to our website for more such meaningful trading ideas and tutorials.

The post Trading Strategy using Orderflow – Live Training Session – Budget 2019 Special appeared first on Marketcalls.

This Market Profile tutorial explains how one can spot a potential trend reversal for positional trading with greater odds. Dual momentum auction reversal is a potential reversal pattern which develops during the early part of the trend before a major trending move occurs.

One can use Dual momentum reversal as a potential resistance zones for their positional trading with a greater risk reward ratio.

This video access is currently available only for people who attended TradeZilla with valid membership

The post [Premium] Dual Momentum Auction Reversal – Market Profile Trend Reversal Trade Setups appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty weekly Options are likely to be introduced by Feb 11th 2019 onwards. Nifty is likely to some volatility out there to attract more speculators to trade the newly introduced weekly options. Gear up for some wild volatility in the upcoming weeks. Already PRBATR shows increasing volatility in the past one week.

Nifty Futures trading sentiment already turned negative on last friday. Last week Nifty Futures even broken last 4 month high and get back into the 4 month range.

Market leaves a clear excess pattern on Quarterly, Weekly & Daily timeframe indicating a possible potential reversal to downside on all the higher timeframes.

When things are getting volatile lower timeframe trading system do lot better than discretionary trading systems. Wild swing make those people to go crazy as trading will get even more tougher even for full timers unless one realize that something had changed in the market. And it is not the good old slow steady moving market anymore.

Market Profile Reference levels

11000CE writers are back in town post the Fridays price action. 11000CE requires a close monitor. Since it is a psychological reference level it could be tested a couple of times more before going further down. Immediate resistance comes around 10960 levels.

More weakness could prevail below 10840 levels. Possibly towards 10600 levels on the downside.

The post Nifty Futures Feb 2019 Outlook appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures 5min Charts – Quick Flip Trading Strategy

Nifty Futures is currently maintaining sell mode on 5min timeframe. Post hitting the extreme sentiment intraday around 10.00a.m price in very short term trying to recover from intraday losses.

Nifty Daily Sentiment

Trading sentiment turns negative on last friday on the daily timeframe. And currently quickflip is at the support band of 10901 – 10915 levels. Price holding this zone could bring a potential test towards 10960 and 10930 levels in very short term.

The post Nifty Futures Quick Flip Update for Feb 2019 Futures appeared first on Marketcalls.

Last couple of weeks we spend our energy in understanding the quality of the datafeeds (Indian & International vendors) for NSE Futures. Since data is the critical element for Derivative traders & Short Term traders we took our observation from Authentic Data vendors( Globaldatafeeds, Truedata, Esignal) for NSE Derivative markets.

Though there was initial confusion about what kind of datafeeds vendors use. we quickly learned that almost all the data vendors(both Domestic, International vendors) get the same legacy netted consolidated 1-second snapshot data feed. Where each and every second NSE sends data feed at a 1-second interval (it is not a true tick data but consolidated tickfeed at every 1-second interval).

What is a Tick Chart?

1-Tick Chart is a price chart which plots the price at each and every price transaction where price goes up with upticks and goes down with downticks.

Basically 1 Tick = 1 Trade transaction ( 1 Executed Order)

since the data vendors for NSE FNO are using consolidated 1-second snapshot data. It is really difficult to say how many actual ticks/trades are getting traded every second unless one have access to TBT (tick by tick) feed which currently most of the HFT members have access to such feeds.

Why Iam Getting Ticks wth Zero Volume?

Last time I heard from Globaldatafeeds they said

we update the ticks when data vendors push update from server whenever any of these things happen :

1. There is a change in bid price or size

2. There is a change in ask price or size

3. A Trade happens

Zero ticks because of Point 1 & 2?.

Means one will get a tick data from the vendor with zero volume if there is a change in bid price/size or ask price/size

Globaldatafeeds transmits all those zero volume ticks. And when asked their comment was “Many a times we have observed that we receive new trade price with 0 volume from exchange. It is observed that many a times, day High / Low or reversals happen at such points and if we choose to filter these updates, they go missing in user’s data / chart“

They also provided a filter in their data manager to remove such zero volume ticks. It is upto the user discretion whether the user wants zero ticks or filtered ticks only with volume.

The other authentic vendors like truedata, esignal they filter the zero tick volume mostly at their end and only transmit very few quantities of ticks with zero volume. But quality of the data vendor remains the same irrespective of whether they sent filtered tick data or unfiltered tick data.

Conclusion 

1)Data vendor quality remains the same irrespective of which data vendor you use.

2)Tick Data quality remains the same across the different data vendors. Some ticks might rarely gets missed because of the traders internet bandwidth or frequent disturbance from the internet. manul Re-Backfill from the charts or data manager could solve this issue.

3)Tools like Amibroker does a r-ebackfill at frequent intervals even if the internet got disconnected. However, softwares like Ninjatrader requires manual re-connect or manual re-backfill whenever there is an internet connectivity issue.

4)If you are using Orderflow kind of tools which requires critical information like trade executed at ask price/bid price. In that case all the authentic data vendors(Globaldatafeeds, Truedata, Esignal) provides same information.

The post Tick Data Vendors and Quality of Tick Datafeeds appeared first on Marketcalls.

Dr. Reddy February futures tumbled as much as 30% percent, as the U.S. drug regulator reiterated issues regarding manufacturing standards at its plant in Bachupally, Telangana which accounts for 40-45% of the Dr-Reddy’s US market sales.

Dr Reddy futures made an intraday low of 1874.50 before recovering most of its losses. Most of the market fall happened between 10.00a.m – 10.15a.m yeh 5minutes it is all takes to do the maximum damage.

Before Getting into how liquidity crisis happened in DR Reddy. Lets get to know what is actually liquidity crisis.

The order book is very liquid when a great amount of orders is stored in each side of the order book (Limit Buy orders and Limit Sell Orders) and almost all quotes behind the best one are occupied. In such a situation a market order produces a small perturbation of the system and then a small price adjustment. On the contrary when a liquidity crisis occurs , the order book is characterized by few orders stored and by a large average gap between adjacent orders. In this case even a market order with a small volume can produce a dramatic price fluctuation of several ticks

Source : ResearchGate

DR Reddy 5min Charts

Here is the 5min Orderflow charts where one can visualize the flow of orders where the red(sell orders) and green (buy orders) stripes shows the fill of market orders and the white zones between those trades represents lack of liquidity or distance limit orders from the orderbook

And 20 seconds of time is all it got for Dr Reddy to move from 2300 levels to an intraday low of 1874.50 levels before sharp recovery .

Below is the 5-second candlestick charts of how to crash looks like before recovery.

During those 20 seconds a total of 380 lots got traded out of those market buy orders are 268 lots and market sell orders are 112 lots. Buyers started absorbing those panic selling in those 20 seconds.

DR Reddy 5 second Candlestick charts

When price is travelling in a low liquidity zones 112 lots is what required to push the price from 2300 levels to sub 1900 levels.

DR Reddy 5 second Orderflow Charts

Buyers and Sellers Transaction Blocks – 5 second Interval

Conclusion

Liquidity crisis is where market crashes even with low volume. Dr Reddy is one such example one can visualize via orderflow charts. It is improbable to catch such lows even if you think you can time those events to catch in such a short period of time.

The post What one can learn from Dr Reddy – Liquidity Crisis via Orderflow Charts appeared first on Marketcalls.

Learn the nuances of trading/investing strategies, the art of chart reading and picking up high probability trades. It is an educational workshop for active traders focused on how to pick low-risk, high potential entry points for your trade.

What you will learn?

1)High Probability Positional Trades using Traders Behavior.
2)Learn to Identify potential short covering rally/Long Liquidation setups.
3)Lean when to use supertrend and when not to use supertrend.
4)Lintra – Intraday and Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty.
5)Vlintra – Positional Trading System for Bank Nifty and High Beta Stocks.
5)Vlintra – Ultimate – Intraday Portfolio Trading System and How to Automate it.
6)Quick Flip Trading System – Use to identify momentum trades & identify the trend very earlier for investing.
7)How to understand the emotions behind gaps and how to trade gaps.
8)When to trade – before the event / post the event.
9)Managing the Risk with Hedging Positions.
10)Potential Market Top/Bottom Setups using Market Profile.
11)Money Management Practices, When to Scale in/Scale Out.
12)How to setup professional charting desk/ required software tools/accessories.
13)How to Identify sideways markets using Expected Value.
14)How to Identify Trading Range for Nifty using PCR charts.
15)How to Identify where most of the traders keep their stoploss.
16)How to Identify the Market Confidence.
17)How to Identify Trend Cycles using Turbo RSI.
18)Learn to do Top Down Analysis and How to build a successful day trading plan.

Where do I attend the course?

About the Mentor

Rajandran is a Full time trader and founder of Marketcalls and co-founder of Traderscafe, hugely interested in building timing models, algos , discretionary trading concepts and Trading Sentimental analysis. He now instructs users all over the world, from experienced traders, professional traders to individual traders.
Rajandran attended college in the Chennai where he earned a BE in Electronics and Communications. Rajandran has a broad understanding of trading software like Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Esignal, Metastock, Motivewave, Market Analyst(Optuma), Metatrader, Tradingivew, Python and understands individual needs of traders and investors utilizing a wide range of methodologies.

Benefits of Attending the Workshop

1)Lifetime Access to Marketcalls Private & professional trading community
2)Access to Recorded Webinars on Amibroker, Ninjatrader, Options Studies, Market Profile , Harmonics & Volume Analysis
with more than 100+ hours of recorded webinars
3)Access to Tradestudio ( Marketcalls Proprietery Trading Systems/Indicators/Scanners/Algos/Trading Alerts)

Pre-Requisites
Knowledge about Futures and Options Trading Concepts, Basics of Technical Analysis.

Frequently Asked Questions

Should I attend the programme?

The course suits for day timeframe traders, positional traders and a mix of traders looking for active investing/active trading strategies.

What are the Software Tools used in the Workshop
Technical Analysis Softwares like Amibroker and Ninjatrader will be used predominantly.

What is Trade Studio?
TradeStudio is a Amibroker Plugin Worth Rs.40,000/- which gives access to set of Marketcalls Proprietary Custom Indicators, Trading Strategies (Intraday & Positional) & Scanners from Marketcalls. All the attendees will get the privilege of accessing in Trade Studio in Amibroker up to 1 year.

How do I contact the Instructor post the course?
Lifetime Slack Access will be provided to our private trading community where we will be discussing algo trading, trading strategies, trading api and best practices.

The post [Online] Trading Strategies for Active Traders appeared first on Marketcalls.

Nifty Futures 30min Charts

How to Interpret the markets when it is totally moving in a sideways direction?

Sideways markets occurs if there is no real interest neither from the buyers nor sellers. Lower trading interest results in lower transaction volume. If the sideways action attracts huge volume possibly it could be due to institutional accumulation/distribution.

First key rule to play during the sideways market is not to get chopped out by the sideways move. Sideways markets are often characterized by slow corrections/trend, consolidations and wider range bound activities.

Most of the sideways movement are often dominated by Short term traders anticipating a breakout whenever it is reaching one side of the consolidation zone.

But when the markets are completely dominated by short term traders (buyers and sellers) what one can face is a broader consolidation zones.

Sideways markets are nothing but repeated breakout failures. More the markets are likely to take a sideways direction more the participants are likely to get frustrated and more likely to give up their trading views about the market.

In Nifty futures Some time back people are talking about triangle patterns and now the triangle almost now becomes an rectangle.

But the real question is when the market is more likely to get rid of consolidation? What could possibly trigger such kind of breakout?

Possibly thats the most bugging question among the traders. One easiest way to spot out the end of the sideways market is looking for clues from the volume where volume starts declining before any major breakout i.e the interest from the participation decreases and results in extreme low followed by the breakout from the consolidation zone.

Recent uptrend in Nifty February contract from 10600 level is followed by ultra low volume which is the result of the frustration. Thats the subtle change one can be able to spot which explains that we are very near to the break from the consolidation zone.

The post Thought about sideways Markets appeared first on Marketcalls.