Nifty Futures May Series Short Term Trend Overview

Nifty Futures on 30th April 2018 ended with a strong closing at the day high. Current swing rallied from 9960 – 10788 i.e almost 818 points in the favor of bulls without any major price retracement. Current trading sentiment is positive across all the timeframe. However the current swing momentum is slow and steady sort of a rolling momentum which pulls lots of inventory pile up from short term trading community and the inventory is dangerously long.

Nifty Futures Daily Charts
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From the Daily charts indicator sentiment holds positive with major supports coming arund 10480 levels and 10000-10100 bands as major intermediate support zone. And our current focus remains towards a potential test towards 10480 levels in the very short term as short term inventory is dangerously long.

Nifty Futures – Market Profile Charts
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1)From the profile perspective some visible stops are around 10480 & 10560 levels that remains the key focus for the current series.
2)Back to Back Prominent POC formation at 10715 and 10770

Volume Delta Bars Activity
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Volume Delta bars shows momentum activity on friday followed by profit booking on mondays trading activity. Overall sellers controlled the fridays session though price went up (sort of cumulative delta divergence) which indicates potential liquidation is near.

Key Support Levels

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very Short term support levels are around 10756 & 10697. Breaking these levels could bring a potential test towards 10480.

Momentum Trading Activity
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It is a momentum buyers market when comes to Nifty Futures trading. Shorter term momentum traders driven the uptrend during April Expiry series. Every micro dips are bought in April a typical behavior of momentum players.

Current trend formation is based on rolling momentum where the participants are pushing the prices after the sideways market movements and the momentum players repeat it again and again after every sideways action which indicates a tired markets.

Open Interest – Nifty Options
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As of now call writers are highly active around 10800 levels. Current week range could be around 10500-10800 range in a very short term. Volatility is greatly muted so far. However India VIX is expected to ramp up due to upcoming Karnataka state elections and the prevailing local sentiment on elections.

Upcoming Economic Events
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Market Intelligence
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Overall Market Intelligence is poor from the participants, FIIs are so far mildly bullish for this series however it is too early to comment on their positions as the series is really young. On the other side PROs and DIIs rolled their April shorts to May which is worrying factor as long as the index shorts inventory from PROs+DIIs remains unwinded from the system!

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